Gornik Zabrze
vs
Piast Gliwice
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gornik Zabrze
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice
| Probability | Gornik Zabrze | Draw | Piast Gliwice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.5% | 26.3% | 27.3% |
| Market | 58.1% | 23.4% | 18.5% |
| Final | 55.2% | 24.1% | 20.7% |
| Edge | -11.6% | +2.9% | +8.7% |
Why Gornik Zabrze
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 1.25.
Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice match preview
Gornik Zabrze enters this match against Piast Gliwice with a strong recent form, boasting five consecutive wins and a draw in their last six matches. The model gives Gornik a 54% probability of winning, with an expected goals figure of 1.69. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1, occurring at a rate of 9%.
In contrast, Piast Gliwice also shows solid performance, winning five of their last six games but has faced Gornik Zabrze twice recently without securing a victory. The model assigns a 21% chance for Piast to win, with an expected goals figure of 1.24. Additionally, there is a 56% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance that both teams will score in this encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.93
Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice attack and defence ratings
Gornik Zabrze
Piast Gliwice
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
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- Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow
- Motor Lublin v Slask Wroclaw — match page
- GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin — team news & stats
- Cracovia Krakow v Legia Warszawa — match page
- Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia — team news & stats
- Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce
- Wisla Plock v Radomiak Radom — match page
Before and after this match
Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gornik Zabrze | 55.2% | 1.81 | -11.6% | 1.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.3% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gornik Zabrze | 55.2% |
| Draw | 24.1% | |
| Piast Gliwice | 20.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.1% |
| No | 40.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gornik Zabrze win | 25.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 53.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-0 | 7.9% |
Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice stats
Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice recent form
| Gornik Zabrze |
WDWWWW |
| Piast Gliwice |
WLWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice season so far
Gornik Zabrze record
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Piast Gliwice record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Gornik Zabrze | Piast Gliwice | Ekstraklasa | 2-1 |
| 2025-07-26 | Piast Gliwice | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 0-1 |
| 2025-05-17 | Piast Gliwice | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 2-0 |
| 2024-11-24 | Gornik Zabrze | Piast Gliwice | Ekstraklasa | 1-0 |
| 2024-02-10 | Piast Gliwice | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 1-3 |
| 2023-08-05 | Gornik Zabrze | Piast Gliwice | Ekstraklasa | 0-0 |
| 2023-03-31 | Piast Gliwice | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 1-0 |
| 2022-09-10 | Gornik Zabrze | Piast Gliwice | Ekstraklasa | 3-3 |
| 2022-02-26 | Piast Gliwice | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 0-0 |
| 2022-02-09 | Piast Gliwice | Gornik Zabrze | Cup | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.0%, draw 23.4%, away 18.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.59 | 4.00 | 4.97 |
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 3.80 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.57 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 3.85 | 4.85 |
| Betfair | 1.60 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.65 | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.57 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.59 | 4.25 | 5.36 |
| SBO | 1.58 | 3.55 | 4.33 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 3.80 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .