Ekstraklasa
·
Full time
·Matchday 11
Cracovia Krakow
vs
Legia Warszawa
1 – 1 Full time
Cracovia Krakow
32%
Draw
27%
Legia Warszawa
41%
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa
| Probability | Cracovia Krakow | Draw | Legia Warszawa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.9% | 26.5% | 48.6% |
| Market | 34.1% | 27.5% | 38.5% |
| Final | 31.8% | 27.2% | 41.0% |
| Edge | -9.1% | -1.0% | +10.1% |
Why Legia Warszawa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Legia Warszawa below the model: +10.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
78%
3+ goals
54%
No goals
7%
Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa expected goals
Cracovia Krakow
1.14
Legia Warszawa
1.68
Total expected goals: 2.82
Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa attack and defence ratings
Cracovia Krakow
Attack
0.97 -3%
Defence
1.07 +7%
Legia Warszawa
Attack
1.30 +30%
Defence
0.75 -25%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa: result vs prediction
Cracovia Krakow 1 – 1 Legia Warszawa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa — team news & stats
- Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow
- Motor Lublin v Slask Wroclaw — match page
- GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin — team news & stats
- Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice
- Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia — team news & stats
- Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce
- Wisla Plock v Radomiak Radom — match page
Before and after this match
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Legia Warszawa | 41.0% | 2.44 | +10.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cracovia Krakow | 31.8% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| Legia Warszawa | 41.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.5% |
| No | 43.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Legia Warszawa win | 26.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 51.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | |
| 0-1 | 8.8% |
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa stats
Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa recent form
| Cracovia Krakow |
WLLLDL |
| Legia Warszawa |
WWDWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa going into this match
Cracovia Krakow record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Legia Warszawa record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
5Cracovia Krakow wins
1Draws
4Legia Warszawa wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Legia Warszawa | Cracovia Krakow | Ekstraklasa | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Cracovia Krakow | Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-18 | Cracovia Krakow | Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa | 3-1 |
| 2024-11-23 | Legia Warszawa | Cracovia Krakow | Ekstraklasa | 3-2 |
| 2023-12-20 | Cracovia Krakow | Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa | 2-0 |
| 2023-12-17 | Legia Warszawa | Cracovia Krakow | Ekstraklasa | 2-0 |
| 2023-02-12 | Legia Warszawa | Cracovia Krakow | Ekstraklasa | 2-2 |
| 2022-07-29 | Cracovia Krakow | Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa | 3-0 |
| 2022-05-21 | Legia Warszawa | Cracovia Krakow | Ekstraklasa | 3-0 |
| 2021-12-05 | Cracovia Krakow | Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.9%, draw 27.4%, away 38.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.38 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.25 | 2.45 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.80 | 3.35 | 2.40 |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.38 |
| Dafabet | 2.85 | 3.40 | 2.46 |
| Marathonbet | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.38 |
| Pinnacle | 2.88 | 3.42 | 2.51 |
| SBO | 2.62 | 3.04 | 2.28 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.70 ▼ -0.12
X
3.35 ▲ +0.07
2
2.39 —
13 snapshots recorded, from .