Lech Poznan
vs
Korona Kielce
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lech Poznan
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce
| Probability | Lech Poznan | Draw | Korona Kielce |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.9% | 22.4% | 19.7% |
| Market | 64.5% | 20.5% | 15.0% |
| Final | 62.8% | 21.0% | 16.2% |
| Edge | -6.6% | +1.9% | +4.7% |
Why Lech Poznan
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.19.
Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce match preview
Lech Poznan is favored to win against Korona Kielce with a probability of 63%, while a draw stands at 21% and Korona Kielce at 16%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Lech Poznan's expected goals are 2.12, compared to Korona Kielce's 1.18, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Lech Poznan has recorded a mixed bag of results with two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Korona Kielce has fared slightly better with four wins, one loss, and one draw in the same period. The model suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 62%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lech Poznan and Korona Kielce expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.31
Lech Poznan and Korona Kielce attack and defence ratings
Lech Poznan
Korona Kielce
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
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- Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow
- Motor Lublin v Slask Wroclaw — match page
- GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin — team news & stats
- Cracovia Krakow v Legia Warszawa — match page
- Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice
- Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia — team news & stats
- Wisla Plock v Radomiak Radom — match page
Before and after this match
Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lech Poznan | 62.8% | 1.59 | -6.6% | 1.47 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.8% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.1% | 2.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lech Poznan | 62.8% |
| Draw | 21.0% | |
| Korona Kielce | 16.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.0% |
| No | 38.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lech Poznan win | 36.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 42.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.2% |
Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce stats
Lech Poznan and Korona Kielce recent form
| Lech Poznan |
LWWLLW |
| Korona Kielce |
LWLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lech Poznan and Korona Kielce season so far
Lech Poznan record
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Korona Kielce record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 54% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Korona Kielce | Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-16 | Lech Poznan | Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-05 | Lech Poznan | Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa | 2-0 |
| 2024-09-29 | Korona Kielce | Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa | 2-3 |
| 2024-05-25 | Lech Poznan | Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa | 1-2 |
| 2023-12-02 | Korona Kielce | Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa | 0-1 |
| 2023-05-19 | Korona Kielce | Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa | 0-3 |
| 2022-11-06 | Lech Poznan | Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa | 3-2 |
| 2020-06-14 | Korona Kielce | Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa | 0-3 |
| 2019-11-10 | Lech Poznan | Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.4%, draw 20.4%, away 15.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.42 | 4.65 | 6.22 |
| Bet365 | 1.44 | 4.33 | 6.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.47 | 4.45 | 6.00 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.47 | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.41 | 4.65 | 6.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.44 | 4.64 | 6.47 |
| SBO | 1.41 | 4.07 | 5.22 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.33 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .