Pogon Szczecin
vs
Korona Kielce
Garuda Lions Prediction: Pogon Szczecin
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce
| Probability | Pogon Szczecin | Draw | Korona Kielce |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.0% | 30.0% | 21.9% |
| Market | 42.7% | 27.3% | 30.0% |
| Final | 44.0% | 28.0% | 28.0% |
| Edge | +5.3% | +2.7% | -8.0% |
Why Pogon Szczecin
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 0.85.
- The market prices Pogon Szczecin below the model: +5.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.29, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce match preview
Pogon Szczecin faces Korona Kielce in an Ekstraklasa matchup on October 11, 2026. Pogon Szczecin has a 44% probability of winning, while both a draw and a Korona Kielce victory are each at 28%. The expected goals for Pogon Szczecin stand at 1.38, compared to 0.86 for Korona Kielce. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% chance of occurring.
In terms of recent form, Pogon Szczecin has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Korona Kielce boasts a stronger record with four wins, one draw, and one loss. The teams have split their last two encounters, with each side claiming one victory. The probability of over 2.5 goals is at 39%, and both teams to score is at 44%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.24
Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce attack and defence ratings
Pogon Szczecin
Korona Kielce
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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- Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice
- Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin — team news & stats
- Slask Wroclaw v Lech Poznan — match page
- Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze
- Piast Gliwice v Widzew Łódź — match page
- Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow — team news & stats
- Radomiak Radom v Motor Lublin — match page
Before and after this match
Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pogon Szczecin | 44.0% | 2.27 | +5.3% | 2.29 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pogon Szczecin | 44.0% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| Korona Kielce | 28.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.4% |
| No | 55.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Pogon Szczecin win | 24.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 51.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 1-0 | 13.5% | |
| 0-0 | 11.9% |
Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce stats
Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce recent form
| Pogon Szczecin |
WWDLDD |
| Korona Kielce |
WLWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce season so far
Pogon Szczecin record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Korona Kielce record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | Pogon Szczecin | Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Korona Kielce | Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.7%, draw 27.3%, away 30.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.11 | 3.50 | 3.12 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.25 | 3.50 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.09 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| Pinnacle | 2.29 | 3.08 | 3.39 |
| SBO | 2.03 | 3.17 | 2.94 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .