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Ekstraklasa · Full time ·Matchday 9

Korona Kielce vs Raków Częstochowa

3 – 2 Full time

7′kamil jakubczyk
20′Mariusz Stępiński
33′Camilo Mena
56′Tomasz Pienko
58′Lamine Diaby Fadiga
62′Mariusz Stępiński
67′Arvid BrorssonBogdan·Mircetic
67′Patryk MakuchAdam Basse
68′Tomasz PienkoMarko Perović
70′Wiktor DługoszNorbert barczak
70′Camilo MenaMorgan Faßbender
80′Mariusz StępińskiDaniel Bak
80′Mahir EmreliIsak Brusberg
80′Marko BulatAdin molnar
82′Bogdan·Mircetic
90′Morgan Faßbender
90′Ondrej LingrSimon Gustafsson
90′Bogdan·Mircetic

Suzuki Arena, KielceReferee: Bartosz Frankowski

Korona Kielce 44%
Draw 27%
Raków Częstochowa 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

23 Shots 19
11 Shots on target 6
42 Possession % 58
7 Corners 5
6 Fouls 16
4 Offsides 1
4 Saves 8
265 Accurate passes 399

Korona Kielce vs Raków Częstochowa overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Korona Kielce vs Raków Częstochowa

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityKorona KielceDrawRaków Częstochowa
Model50.2%27.5%22.3%
Market42.4%27.2%30.4%
Final44.4%27.3%28.4%
Edge+7.8%+0.3%-8.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Korona Kielce

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 0.99.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Korona Kielce below the model: +7.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Korona Kielce ↓ / Raków Częstoch → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 1 11% 13% 2 10% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 74%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 9%

Korona Kielce and Raków Częstochowa expected goals

Korona Kielce 1.59
Raków Częstochowa 0.99

Total expected goals: 2.58

Korona Kielce and Raków Częstochowa attack and defence ratings

Korona Kielce

Attack 0.80 -20%
Defence 0.76 -24%

Raków Częstochowa

Attack 1.09 +9%
Defence 1.26 +26%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Korona Kielce vs Raków Częstochowa: result vs prediction

Korona Kielce 3 – 2 Raków Częstochowa

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Ekstraklasa

Before and after this match

Korona Kielce vs Raków Częstochowa markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Korona Kielce 44.4% 2.25 +7.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 52.3% 1.91 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.2% 1.95 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.7% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 49.8% 2.01 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Korona Kielce44.4%
Draw27.3%
Raków Częstochowa28.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547.7%
Under 2.552.3%
Both teams to scoreYes51.2%
No48.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.6%
12 (either side)72.7%
X2 (draw or away)55.6%
Handicap -1Korona Kielce win27.0%
Push (exactly one goal)23.2%
Loss49.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.1%
1-010.9%
2-09.6%

Korona Kielce vs Raków Częstochowa stats

Korona Kielce and Raków Częstochowa recent form

newest first
Korona Kielce LWDWWD
Raków Częstochowa LWLLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Korona Kielce and Raków Częstochowa going into this match

league record before kick-off

Korona Kielce record

  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
  • 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Raków Częstochowa record

  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Korona Kielce vs Raków Częstochowa head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Korona Kielce wins 2Draws 7Raków Częstochowa wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-08Raków CzęstochowaKorona KielceEkstraklasa2-0
2025-11-09Korona KielceRaków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa1-4
2025-05-17Korona KielceRaków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa1-1
2024-11-24Raków CzęstochowaKorona KielceEkstraklasa1-1
2024-03-13Korona KielceRaków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa0-2
2023-12-17Raków CzęstochowaKorona KielceEkstraklasa1-0
2023-05-07Korona KielceRaków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa1-0
2022-10-22Raków CzęstochowaKorona KielceEkstraklasa1-0
2020-08-03Raków CzęstochowaKorona KielceFriendlies Clubs5-0
2020-06-23Korona KielceRaków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Korona Kielce vs Raków Częstochowa odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 42.4%, draw 27.2%, away 30.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.18 3.35 3.10
Bet365 2.15 3.30 2.90
BetVictor 2.15 3.40 3.00
Betano 2.27 3.40 3.00
Betfair 2.10 3.50 3.10
Marathonbet 2.16 3.35 3.08
Pinnacle 2.25 3.53 3.21
SBO 2.08 3.04 2.92
William Hill 2.15 3.25 3.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.15 ▼ -0.09
X 3.35 ▼ -0.01
2 3.00 —

13 snapshots recorded, from .