Ekstraklasa
·
Full time
·Matchday 2
Korona Kielce
vs
Gornik Zabrze
0 – 2 Full time
| 41′ | Peter Federico González Carmona | ||
| 53′ | Erik Prekop | ||
| 62′ | Martin RemacleCamilo Mena | ||
| 64′ | Erik JanžaOndrej Zmrzly | ||
| 70′ | Michael AmeyawMorgan Faßbender | ||
| 70′ | Ondrej LingrSimon Gustafsson | ||
| 71′ | Paulo BernardoMalthe Hojholt | ||
| 71′ | Erik PrekopSondre Liseth | ||
| 84′ | Jarosław KubickiLukáš Sadílek | ||
| 84′ | Maksym KhlanJanis Antiste | ||
| 88′ | Ariel Mosor | ||
| 88′ | Patrik HellebrandDaniel Bak | ||
| 89′ | kamil jakubczyk | ||
| 90′ | Peter Federico González Carmona |
Korona Kielce
38%
Draw
29%
Gornik Zabrze
33%
Match stats
| 2 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 32 | Possession % | 68 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 3 | Saves | 0 |
| 517 | Accurate passes | 281 |
Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze
| Probability | Korona Kielce | Draw | Gornik Zabrze |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.9% | 29.0% | 23.1% |
| Market | 35.2% | 28.5% | 36.3% |
| Final | 38.4% | 28.6% | 33.0% |
| Edge | +12.7% | +0.5% | -13.2% |
Why Korona Kielce
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Korona Kielce below the model: +12.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
90%
2+ goals
70%
3+ goals
43%
No goals
10%
Korona Kielce and Gornik Zabrze expected goals
Korona Kielce
1.46
Gornik Zabrze
0.94
Total expected goals: 2.40
Korona Kielce and Gornik Zabrze attack and defence ratings
Korona Kielce
Attack
0.88 -12%
Defence
0.69 -31%
Gornik Zabrze
Attack
1.17 +17%
Defence
1.05 +5%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze: result vs prediction
Korona Kielce 0 – 2 Gornik Zabrze
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Before and after this match
Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Korona Kielce | 38.4% | 2.61 | +12.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Korona Kielce | 38.4% |
| Draw | 28.6% | |
| Gornik Zabrze | 33.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.1% |
| No | 51.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Korona Kielce win | 24.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 52.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 12.0% | |
| 0-0 | 10.3% |
Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze stats
Korona Kielce and Gornik Zabrze recent form
| Korona Kielce |
WDWWDW |
| Gornik Zabrze |
WWWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Korona Kielce and Gornik Zabrze going into this match
Korona Kielce record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
Gornik Zabrze record
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
0Korona Kielce wins
4Draws
6Gornik Zabrze wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Gornik Zabrze | Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Korona Kielce | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-24 | Gornik Zabrze | Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa | 1-1 |
| 2024-12-01 | Korona Kielce | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 2-4 |
| 2024-02-19 | Gornik Zabrze | Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa | 3-1 |
| 2023-08-12 | Korona Kielce | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 0-1 |
| 2023-04-06 | Gornik Zabrze | Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa | 1-1 |
| 2022-09-18 | Korona Kielce | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 1-2 |
| 2020-06-19 | Gornik Zabrze | Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa | 3-2 |
| 2020-02-08 | Korona Kielce | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.2%, draw 28.5%, away 36.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.65 | 3.14 | 2.56 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.25 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.65 | 3.35 | 2.55 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.30 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.65 | 3.14 | 2.56 |
| Pinnacle | 2.78 | 3.25 | 2.69 |
| SBO | 2.56 | 3.14 | 2.50 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.63 ▲ +0.04
X
3.25 ▼ -0.13
2
2.55 ▲ +0.03
6 snapshots recorded, from .