Ekstraklasa
·
Full time
·Matchday 8
Gornik Zabrze
vs
Lech Poznan
2 – 1 Full time
| 26′ | Patrick Walemark | ||
| 30′ | Jarosław Kubicki | ||
| 36′ | Allahyar Sayyadmanesh | ||
| 37′ | Allahyar Sayyadmanesh | ||
| 39′ | Michal Sáček | ||
| 55′ | Paulo Bernardo | ||
| 60′ | Janis Antiste | ||
| 60′ | Janis AntisteErik Prekop | ||
| 60′ | Paulo BernardoSondre Liseth | ||
| 60′ | Peter Federico González CarmonaYvan Ikia Dimi | ||
| 64′ | Allahyar SayyadmaneshLeo Bengtsson | ||
| 64′ | Radosław MurawskiFilip Jagiełło | ||
| 72′ | Pablo Rodriguez DelgadoLuis Palma | ||
| 72′ | Mikael IshakY. Agnero | ||
| 76′ | Erik Prekop | ||
| 80′ | Erik Prekop | ||
| 80′ | Erik Prekop | ||
| 83′ | Erik JanžaOndrej Zmrzly | ||
| 88′ | Kacper UrbanskiLukáš Sadílek |
Gornik Zabrze
30%
Draw
26%
Lech Poznan
44%
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 51 | Possession % | 49 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Offsides | 3 |
| 0 | Saves | 2 |
| 326 | Accurate passes | 299 |
Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan
| Probability | Gornik Zabrze | Draw | Lech Poznan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.0% | 23.4% | 53.7% |
| Market | 32.9% | 26.8% | 40.3% |
| Final | 30.4% | 25.9% | 43.6% |
| Edge | -10.0% | -3.5% | +13.4% |
Why Lech Poznan
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lech Poznan below the model: +13.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
85%
3+ goals
64%
No goals
5%
Gornik Zabrze and Lech Poznan expected goals
Gornik Zabrze
1.28
Lech Poznan
2.03
Total expected goals: 3.31
Gornik Zabrze and Lech Poznan attack and defence ratings
Gornik Zabrze
Attack
1.12 +12%
Defence
1.06 +6%
Lech Poznan
Attack
1.62 +62%
Defence
0.73 -27%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan: result vs prediction
Gornik Zabrze 2 – 1 Lech Poznan
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Raków Częstochowa v Motor Lublin — match page
- Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia — team news & stats
- Slask Wroclaw vs Korona Kielce
- Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice — team news & stats
- Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow
- Pogon Szczecin v Wieczysta Kraków — match page
- Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź — team news & stats
- Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice
Before and after this match
Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lech Poznan | 43.6% | 2.29 | +13.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.2% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gornik Zabrze | 30.4% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Lech Poznan | 43.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.6% |
| No | 36.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lech Poznan win | 32.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 46.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | |
| 0-2 | 7.5% |
Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan stats
Gornik Zabrze and Lech Poznan recent form
| Gornik Zabrze |
WWLLLW |
| Lech Poznan |
WWWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gornik Zabrze and Lech Poznan going into this match
Gornik Zabrze record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Lech Poznan record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Gornik Zabrze wins
2Draws
5Lech Poznan wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Lech Poznan | Gornik Zabrze | Super Cup | 3-1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Lech Poznan | Gornik Zabrze | Poland Cup | 0-1 |
| 2026-02-07 | Gornik Zabrze | Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-02 | Lech Poznan | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 2-1 |
| 2024-12-06 | Gornik Zabrze | Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa | 2-1 |
| 2024-07-21 | Lech Poznan | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 2-0 |
| 2024-03-09 | Gornik Zabrze | Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa | 0-0 |
| 2023-09-02 | Lech Poznan | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 1-1 |
| 2023-04-30 | Lech Poznan | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 0-1 |
| 2022-10-16 | Gornik Zabrze | Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.3%, draw 26.4%, away 40.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.68 | 3.55 | 2.40 |
| 1xBet | 2.89 | 3.44 | 2.29 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.55 | 2.48 |
| Marathonbet | 2.88 | 3.44 | 2.27 |
| Pinnacle | 3.01 | 3.59 | 2.34 |
| SBO | 2.70 | 3.34 | 2.27 |
| Unibet | 2.50 | 3.65 | 2.55 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.80 ▲ +0.25
X
3.44 ▼ -0.16
2
2.29 ▼ -0.26
13 snapshots recorded, from .