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Ekstraklasa · Full time ·Matchday 7

Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa

1 – 0 Full time

9′Fran Tudor
25′Mateusz Skrzypczak
32′Michal Gurgul
40′Tomasz Pienko
45′Mateusz SkrzypczakTerry Yegbe
45′Luis PalmaPatrick Walemark
45′Adam BasseVladyslav Kochergin
54′Y. AgneroMikael Ishak
68′Allahyar SayyadmaneshLeo Bengtsson
71′Leo Bengtsson
75′Filip JagiełłoGustav Berggren
76′Stratos SvarnasIsak Brusberg
79′Tomasz PienkoMarko Perović
79′Patryk MakuchAdin molnar
79′Fran TudorJakub Jendryka
90′Wojciech Monka
90′Mahir Emreli

Enea Poznań, PoznanReferee: Damian Kos, Poland

Lech Poznan 64%
Draw 19%
Raków Częstochowa 16%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

28 Shots 8
6 Shots on target 1
52 Possession % 48
8 Corners 2
15 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 0
1 Saves 5
366 Accurate passes 337

Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLech PoznanDrawRaków Częstochowa
Model80.6%12.0%7.4%
Market59.1%21.6%19.3%
Final64.5%19.2%16.3%
Edge+21.5%-9.6%-11.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Lech Poznan

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.36 vs 1.05.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Lech Poznan below the model: +21.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Lech Poznan ↓ / Raków Częstoch → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 2 3 8% 4+ 15% 16% 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 94%
3+ goals 82%
No goals 2%

Lech Poznan and Raków Częstochowa expected goals

Lech Poznan 3.36
Raków Częstochowa 1.05

Total expected goals: 4.41

Lech Poznan and Raków Częstochowa attack and defence ratings

Lech Poznan

Attack 1.71 +71%
Defence 0.78 -22%

Raków Częstochowa

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 1.25 +25%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa: result vs prediction

Lech Poznan 1 – 0 Raków Częstochowa

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Ekstraklasa

Before and after this match

Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Lech Poznan 64.5% 1.55 +21.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81.5% 1.23 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.0% 1.59 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 83.7% 1.20 — —
Handicap -1 Lech Poznan win 64.0% 1.56 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Lech Poznan64.5%
Draw19.2%
Raków Częstochowa16.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.581.5%
Under 2.518.5%
Both teams to scoreYes63.0%
No37.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)83.7%
12 (either side)80.8%
X2 (draw or away)35.5%
Handicap -1Lech Poznan win64.0%
Push (exactly one goal)16.6%
Loss19.4%
Correct score (top 3)3-18.1%
3-07.7%
2-17.2%

Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa stats

Lech Poznan and Raków Częstochowa recent form

newest first
Lech Poznan WWDWWW
Raków Częstochowa LLLDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Lech Poznan and Raków Częstochowa going into this match

league record before kick-off

Lech Poznan record

  • They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.

Raków Częstochowa record

  • They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.

Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Lech Poznan wins 2Draws 5Raków Częstochowa wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-01Lech PoznanRaków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa4-3
2025-09-24Raków CzęstochowaLech PoznanEkstraklasa2-2
2025-02-14Lech PoznanRaków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa0-1
2024-08-09Raków CzęstochowaLech PoznanEkstraklasa0-0
2024-03-03Raków CzęstochowaLech PoznanEkstraklasa4-0
2023-09-28Lech PoznanRaków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa4-1
2023-05-14Raków CzęstochowaLech PoznanEkstraklasa0-2
2022-10-30Lech PoznanRaków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa1-2
2022-07-09Lech PoznanRaków CzęstochowaSuper Cup0-2
2022-05-02Lech PoznanRaków CzęstochowaCup1-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 58.6%, draw 21.8%, away 19.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.59 4.10 5.00
1xBet 1.58 4.30 4.80
Bet365 1.57 4.50 4.33
BetVictor 1.55 4.10 4.80
Betano 1.65 4.25 4.35
Betfair 1.57 4.20 5.00
Dafabet 1.65 4.40 4.60
Marathonbet 1.56 4.30 4.85
Pinnacle 1.61 4.56 4.98
SBO 1.58 3.76 4.04
Superbet 1.64 4.25 4.45
Unibet 1.66 3.95 4.70
William Hill 1.57 4.00 4.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.57 ▼ -0.13
X 4.30 ▲ +0.38
2 4.80 ▲ +0.46

7 snapshots recorded, from .