Ekstraklasa
·
Full time
·Matchday 5
Raków Częstochowa
vs
Gornik Zabrze
1 – 2 Full time
| 6′ | J. Antiste | ||
| 34′ | R. Janicki | ||
| 36′ | Kacper Urbański | ||
| 36′ | M. PerovicJ. C. Silva | ||
| 46′ | D. G. DebohiS. Svarnas | ||
| 46′ | J. JendrykaL. Diaby-Fadiga | ||
| 52′ | O. AbrahamK. Struski | ||
| 61′ | V. KocherginA. Basse | ||
| 65′ | Fran Tudor | ||
| 79′ | M. Emreli | ||
| 80′ | J. KubickiL. Sadilek | ||
| 80′ | Y. Ikia DimiB. Durdov | ||
| 84′ | P. BernardoB. Donio | ||
| 84′ | J. AntisteE. Prekop | ||
| 89′ | M. KhlanO. Zmrzly | ||
| 90′ | Lamine Diaby-Fadiga |
Raków Częstochowa
42%
Draw
26%
Gornik Zabrze
32%
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 63 | Possession % | 37 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 0 | Saves | 2 |
| 487 | Accurate passes | 263 |
Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze
| Probability | Raków Częstochowa | Draw | Gornik Zabrze |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.7% | 21.9% | 27.4% |
| Market | 39.2% | 27.5% | 33.3% |
| Final | 42.1% | 26.1% | 31.9% |
| Edge | +11.5% | -5.6% | -5.9% |
Why Raków Częstochowa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.62.
- The market prices Raków Częstochowa below the model: +11.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
97%
2+ goals
90%
3+ goals
74%
No goals
3%
Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze expected goals
Raków Częstochowa
2.22
Gornik Zabrze
1.62
Total expected goals: 3.84
Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze attack and defence ratings
Raków Częstochowa
Attack
1.16 +16%
Defence
1.23 +23%
Gornik Zabrze
Attack
1.11 +11%
Defence
1.21 +21%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze: result vs prediction
Raków Częstochowa 1 – 2 Gornik Zabrze
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Cracovia Krakow v Wieczysta Kraków — match page
- Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin — team news & stats
- Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa
- Slask Wroclaw v Widzew Łódź — match page
- Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin — team news & stats
- GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock
- Pogon Szczecin v Wisla Krakow — match page
- Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia
Before and after this match
Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Raków Częstochowa | 42.1% | 2.38 | +11.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.8% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.3% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Raków Częstochowa | 42.1% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Gornik Zabrze | 31.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.3% |
| No | 27.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Raków Częstochowa win | 31.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 49.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.6% |
| 1-1 | 8.5% | |
| 2-2 | 7.0% |
Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze stats
Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze recent form
| Raków Częstochowa |
LLDLWD |
| Gornik Zabrze |
LLLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze going into this match
Raków Częstochowa record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
Gornik Zabrze record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Raków Częstochowa wins
1Draws
6Gornik Zabrze wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Gornik Zabrze | Raków Częstochowa | Poland Cup | 2-0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Gornik Zabrze | Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa | 3-1 |
| 2025-09-15 | Raków Częstochowa | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 0-1 |
| 2025-02-21 | Raków Częstochowa | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-18 | Gornik Zabrze | Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa | 0-0 |
| 2024-04-19 | Raków Częstochowa | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 0-1 |
| 2023-10-22 | Gornik Zabrze | Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa | 2-1 |
| 2023-03-24 | Raków Częstochowa | Gornik Zabrze | Friendlies Clubs | 1-3 |
| 2023-02-18 | Raków Częstochowa | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 2-0 |
| 2022-09-23 | Raków Częstochowa | Gornik Zabrze | Friendlies Clubs | 6-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.2%, draw 27.5%, away 33.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.25 | 3.55 | 2.92 |
| 1xBet | 2.38 | 3.38 | 2.76 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.40 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.47 | 3.40 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.38 | 3.36 | 2.77 |
| Pinnacle | 2.46 | 3.57 | 2.84 |
| SBO | 2.15 | 3.04 | 2.80 |
| Superbet | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| Unibet | 2.33 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.25 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.38 ▲ +0.22
X
3.40 ▼ -0.09
2
2.80 ▼ -0.29
8 snapshots recorded, from .