Raków Częstochowa
vs
Jagiellonia
2 – 5 Full time
Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia
| Probability | Raków Częstochowa | Draw | Jagiellonia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.7% | 29.3% | 31.1% |
| Market | 46.3% | 25.5% | 28.2% |
| Final | 44.6% | 26.4% | 28.9% |
| Edge | -6.6% | +3.8% | +2.9% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia attack and defence ratings
Raków Częstochowa
Jagiellonia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia: result vs prediction
Raków Częstochowa 2 – 5 Jagiellonia
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
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Before and after this match
Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Raków Częstochowa | 44.6% | 2.24 | -6.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.6% | 1.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Raków Częstochowa | 44.6% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Jagiellonia | 28.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% |
| No | 47.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Raków Częstochowa win | 15.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.5% | |
| Loss | 65.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 9.6% | |
| 0-0 | 9.3% |
Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia stats
Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia recent form
| Raków Częstochowa |
LDLWDL |
| Jagiellonia |
WWDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia going into this match
Raków Częstochowa record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
Jagiellonia record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 64% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Raków Częstochowa | Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa | 0-2 |
| 2025-11-02 | Jagiellonia | Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.3%, draw 25.5%, away 28.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.02 | 3.65 | 3.35 |
| 1xBet | 2.01 | 3.65 | 3.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.55 | 3.35 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.07 | 3.65 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.99 | 3.65 | 3.30 |
| Pinnacle | 2.02 | 3.77 | 3.36 |
| SBO | 1.98 | 3.25 | 2.97 |
| Unibet | 2.17 | 3.50 | 3.15 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .