Ekstraklasa
·
Full time
·Matchday 5
Lech Poznan
vs
Jagiellonia
2 – 1 Full time
| 43′ | P. Rodriguez | ||
| 45′ | Y. Kobayashi | ||
| 46′ | Y. KobayashiG. Montoia | ||
| 59′ | S. LozanoA. Klynge | ||
| 59′ | O. SowK. Szmyt | ||
| 63′ | G. BerggrenF. Jagiello | ||
| 64′ | A. SayyadmaneshY. Agnero | ||
| 68′ | E. KozlowskiH. Finndell | ||
| 72′ | L. PalmaL. Bengtsson | ||
| 73′ | P. RodriguezM. Ishak | ||
| 80′ | Patrik Wålemark | ||
| 80′ | Rodrigo Conceição | ||
| 82′ | N. PrelecY. Sylla | ||
| 83′ | P. WalemarkR. Gumny | ||
| 87′ | R. Gumny | ||
| 90′ | Hampus Finndell |
Lech Poznan
57%
Draw
22%
Jagiellonia
21%
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 48 | Possession % | 52 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Offsides | 3 |
| 1 | Saves | 4 |
| 330 | Accurate passes | 382 |
Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia
| Probability | Lech Poznan | Draw | Jagiellonia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.8% | 21.2% | 20.0% |
| Market | 56.5% | 22.2% | 21.4% |
| Final | 57.0% | 21.9% | 21.0% |
| Edge | +2.3% | -1.0% | -1.3% |
Why Lech Poznan
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.30.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lech Poznan below the model: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
88%
3+ goals
70%
No goals
4%
Lech Poznan and Jagiellonia expected goals
Lech Poznan
2.29
Jagiellonia
1.30
Total expected goals: 3.59
Lech Poznan and Jagiellonia attack and defence ratings
Lech Poznan
Attack
1.78 +78%
Defence
0.76 -24%
Jagiellonia
Attack
1.45 +45%
Defence
0.81 -19%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia: result vs prediction
Lech Poznan 2 – 1 Jagiellonia
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Cracovia Krakow v Wieczysta Kraków — match page
- Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin — team news & stats
- Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa
- Slask Wroclaw v Widzew Łódź — match page
- Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin — team news & stats
- GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock
- Pogon Szczecin v Wisla Krakow — match page
- Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lech Poznan | 57.0% | 1.75 | +2.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.0% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.3% | 2.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lech Poznan | 57.0% |
| Draw | 21.9% | |
| Jagiellonia | 21.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.2% |
| No | 33.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lech Poznan win | 37.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 41.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.4% |
| 1-1 | 9.0% | |
| 2-0 | 7.2% |
Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia stats
Lech Poznan and Jagiellonia recent form
| Lech Poznan |
WDWWWW |
| Jagiellonia |
WWWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lech Poznan and Jagiellonia going into this match
Lech Poznan record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Jagiellonia record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 64% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
6Lech Poznan wins
3Draws
1Jagiellonia wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Jagiellonia | Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Lech Poznan | Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa | 2-2 |
| 2025-03-16 | Jagiellonia | Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa | 2-1 |
| 2024-09-14 | Lech Poznan | Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa | 5-0 |
| 2024-02-17 | Jagiellonia | Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa | 1-2 |
| 2023-10-24 | Lech Poznan | Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa | 3-3 |
| 2023-05-27 | Lech Poznan | Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa | 2-0 |
| 2022-11-12 | Jagiellonia | Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa | 1-2 |
| 2022-06-28 | Lech Poznan | Jagiellonia | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2022-03-19 | Lech Poznan | Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.5%, draw 22.2%, away 21.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.61 | 4.30 | 4.60 |
| 1xBet | 1.65 | 4.20 | 4.36 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 4.10 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 4.05 | 4.20 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 4.33 | 4.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.70 | 4.30 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.62 | 4.20 | 4.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.66 | 4.37 | 4.69 |
| SBO | 1.60 | 3.76 | 3.95 |
| Superbet | 1.64 | 4.20 | 4.45 |
| Unibet | 1.66 | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.65 ▼ -0.14
X
4.20 ▲ +0.35
2
4.36 ▲ +0.26
9 snapshots recorded, from .