Ekstraklasa
·
Full time
·Matchday 5
Piast Gliwice
vs
Legia Warszawa
1 – 1 Full time
Piast Gliwice
24%
Draw
26%
Legia Warszawa
50%
Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa
| Probability | Piast Gliwice | Draw | Legia Warszawa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.4% | 20.1% | 65.5% |
| Market | 27.2% | 27.4% | 45.4% |
| Final | 24.0% | 25.6% | 50.4% |
| Edge | -12.8% | -7.2% | +20.1% |
Why Legia Warszawa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Legia Warszawa below the model: +20.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
85%
3+ goals
65%
No goals
4%
Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa expected goals
Piast Gliwice
1.02
Legia Warszawa
2.32
Total expected goals: 3.33
Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa attack and defence ratings
Piast Gliwice
Attack
1.09 +9%
Defence
1.47 +47%
Legia Warszawa
Attack
1.35 +35%
Defence
0.59 -41%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa: result vs prediction
Piast Gliwice 1 – 1 Legia Warszawa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Cracovia Krakow v Wieczysta Kraków — match page
- Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin — team news & stats
- Slask Wroclaw v Widzew Łódź — match page
- Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin — team news & stats
- GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock
- Pogon Szczecin v Wisla Krakow — match page
- Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze — team news & stats
- Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia
Before and after this match
Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Legia Warszawa | 50.4% | 1.98 | +20.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.7% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Legia Warszawa win | 43.7% | 2.29 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Piast Gliwice | 24.0% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| Legia Warszawa | 50.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.4% |
| No | 41.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 49.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Legia Warszawa win | 43.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 34.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.7% |
| 0-2 | 9.6% | |
| 1-1 | 9.3% |
Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa stats
Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa recent form
| Piast Gliwice |
LLWLLL |
| Legia Warszawa |
WDWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa going into this match
Piast Gliwice record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
Legia Warszawa record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
2Piast Gliwice wins
0Draws
0Legia Warszawa wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | Legia Warszawa | Piast Gliwice | Ekstraklasa | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-06 | Piast Gliwice | Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.2%, draw 27.4%, away 45.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.06 |
| 1xBet | 3.46 | 3.42 | 2.03 |
| 888Sport | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 1.95 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.40 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.55 | 3.30 | 2.07 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.55 | 3.50 | 2.08 |
| Marathonbet | 3.45 | 3.42 | 2.01 |
| Pinnacle | 3.63 | 3.60 | 2.06 |
| SBO | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.06 |
| Superbet | 3.45 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| Unibet | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.30 | 2.00 |