Garuda Lions
Today
Ekstraklasa · Full time ·Matchday 5

Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin

1 – 1 Full time

Exbud Arena, KielceReferee: Damian Sylwestrzak, Poland

Korona Kielce 48%
Draw 27%
Motor Lublin 25%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityKorona KielceDrawMotor Lublin
Model48.5%28.3%23.1%
Market47.6%26.4%26.0%
Final47.9%26.9%25.3%
Edge+0.9%+1.9%-2.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Korona Kielce

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.98.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Korona Kielce ↓ / Motor Lublin → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 7% 1 11% 13% 2 10% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 45%
No goals 10%

Korona Kielce and Motor Lublin expected goals

Korona Kielce 1.51
Motor Lublin 0.98

Total expected goals: 2.49

Korona Kielce and Motor Lublin attack and defence ratings

Korona Kielce

Attack 0.81 -19%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Motor Lublin

Attack 0.96 -4%
Defence 1.18 +18%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin: result vs prediction

Korona Kielce 1 – 1 Motor Lublin

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Ekstraklasa

Before and after this match

Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Korona Kielce 47.9% 2.09 +0.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 54.6% 1.83 — —
Both teams to score No 50.2% 1.99 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 74.7% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.5% 1.94 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Korona Kielce47.9%
Draw26.9%
Motor Lublin25.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545.4%
Under 2.554.6%
Both teams to scoreYes49.8%
No50.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.7%
12 (either side)73.1%
X2 (draw or away)52.1%
Handicap -1Korona Kielce win25.3%
Push (exactly one goal)23.2%
Loss51.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.5%
1-011.3%
0-09.5%

Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin stats

Korona Kielce and Motor Lublin recent form

newest first
Korona Kielce WDLDWL
Motor Lublin WLLDLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Korona Kielce and Motor Lublin going into this match

league record before kick-off

Korona Kielce record

  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

Motor Lublin record

  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

1Korona Kielce wins 0Draws 1Motor Lublin wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-28Motor LublinKorona KielceEkstraklasa2-0
2025-08-23Korona KielceMotor LublinEkstraklasa2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.6%, draw 26.4%, away 26.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.90 3.70 3.65
1xBet 1.95 3.52 3.62
888Sport 1.95 3.40 3.50
Bet365 1.90 3.40 3.60
BetVictor 1.91 3.50 3.50
Betano 1.98 3.55 3.55
Betfair 1.90 3.70 3.70
Dafabet 1.99 3.65 3.65
Marathonbet 1.93 3.52 3.62
Pinnacle 2.00 3.62 3.79
SBO 1.96 3.22 3.26
Superbet 1.97 3.55 3.55
Unibet 1.92 3.50 3.55
William Hill 1.95 3.30 3.50

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.