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Ekstraklasa · Full time ·Matchday 8

Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin

2 – 1 Full time

31′Karol Struski
34′Kamil Lukoszek
42′Patryk Makuch
61′Karol StruskiVladyslav Kochergin
62′Fabio Ronaldo Costa ConceicaoMakan Aiko
76′Marko BulatAdam Basse
77′Patryk Makuch
80′Mateusz LegowskiChristopher Simon
80′Mbaye Jacques NdiayeRony Lopes
81′Vladyslav Kochergin
85′Mariusz Misiura
87′Jean CarlosMarko Perović
87′Mahir EmreliOjo abraham
87′Kamil LukoszekPaskal Konrad Meyer
87′Filip LubereckiMateusz Posmyk

Miejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow, CzestochowaReferee: Szymon Marciniak, Poland

Raków Częstochowa 50%
Draw 24%
Motor Lublin 26%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 16
7 Shots on target 5
52 Possession % 48
8 Corners 4
14 Fouls 16
0 Offsides 1
4 Saves 5
388 Accurate passes 353

Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityRaków CzęstochowaDrawMotor Lublin
Model47.4%23.8%28.7%
Market51.4%24.2%24.5%
Final50.4%24.1%25.5%
Edge-3.9%-0.3%+4.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Raków Częstochowa

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.49.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Raków Częstoch ↓ / Motor Lublin → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 10% 7% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 67%
No goals 4%

Raków Częstochowa and Motor Lublin expected goals

Raków Częstochowa 1.94
Motor Lublin 1.49

Total expected goals: 3.43

Raków Częstochowa and Motor Lublin attack and defence ratings

Raków Częstochowa

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 1.22 +22%

Motor Lublin

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 1.20 +20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin: result vs prediction

Raków Częstochowa 2 – 1 Motor Lublin

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Ekstraklasa

Before and after this match

Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Raków Częstochowa 50.4% 1.98 -3.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66.6% 1.50 — —
Both teams to score Yes 67.2% 1.49 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.9% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 52.6% 1.90 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Raków Częstochowa50.4%
Draw24.1%
Motor Lublin25.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566.6%
Under 2.533.4%
Both teams to scoreYes67.2%
No32.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.5%
12 (either side)75.9%
X2 (draw or away)49.6%
Handicap -1Raków Częstochowa win27.4%
Push (exactly one goal)20.1%
Loss52.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.3%
2-19.1%
1-27.0%

Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin stats

Raków Częstochowa and Motor Lublin recent form

newest first
Raków Częstochowa LLLLDL
Motor Lublin LWLDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Raków Częstochowa and Motor Lublin going into this match

league record before kick-off

Raków Częstochowa record

  • They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.

Motor Lublin record

  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

3Raków Częstochowa wins 2Draws 0Motor Lublin wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-12Motor LublinRaków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa1-1
2025-10-05Raków CzęstochowaMotor LublinEkstraklasa2-0
2024-12-07Raków CzęstochowaMotor LublinEkstraklasa2-2
2024-07-21Motor LublinRaków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa0-2
2023-03-01Motor LublinRaków CzęstochowaCup0-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 51.7%, draw 24.2%, away 24.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.81 3.90 3.85
1xBet 1.82 3.85 3.78
888Sport 1.80 3.75 3.75
Bet365 1.75 3.70 3.90
BetVictor 1.80 3.75 3.70
Betano 1.80 3.90 3.95
Betfair 1.75 4.00 3.90
Dafabet 1.83 3.90 4.10
Marathonbet 1.80 3.85 3.78
Pinnacle 1.85 4.13 3.86
SBO 1.76 3.40 3.52
Superbet 1.82 3.80 3.90
Unibet 1.71 4.00 4.35
William Hill 1.80 3.80 3.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.80 ▲ +0.10
X 3.83 ▼ -0.11
2 3.78 ▼ -0.51

13 snapshots recorded, from .