Ekstraklasa
·
Full time
·Matchday 8
Pogon Szczecin
vs
Wieczysta Kraków
2 – 0 Full time
| 35′ | Duje Dujmovic | ||
| 45′ | Duje DujmovicAntonio Milic | ||
| 57′ | Christophe LungoyiVillar | ||
| 59′ | Darko Churlinov | ||
| 62′ | Lucas Piazón | ||
| 63′ | Jan BieganskiKellyn Acosta | ||
| 64′ | Maciej WojciechowskiNatan Lawa | ||
| 68′ | Alessandro RiccioHussein Ali | ||
| 68′ | Lucas PiazónPetar Pusic | ||
| 68′ | Lisandro SemedoJosé Antonio de la Rosa Garrido | ||
| 71′ | Kamil Pestka | ||
| 74′ | Kamil PestkaMatúš Vojtko | ||
| 84′ | Benjamin MendyAttila Szalai | ||
| 84′ | Paul Omo MukairuMusa Juwara | ||
| 85′ | Patryk Dziczek | ||
| 90′ | Jordi Sánchez |
Pogon Szczecin
47%
Draw
26%
Wieczysta Kraków
28%
Match stats
| 20 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 48 | Possession % | 52 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Offsides | 0 |
| 3 | Saves | 4 |
| 301 | Accurate passes | 443 |
Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków
| Probability | Pogon Szczecin | Draw | Wieczysta Kraków |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.2% | 24.0% | 21.8% |
| Market | 44.2% | 26.2% | 29.5% |
| Final | 46.7% | 25.7% | 27.6% |
| Edge | +9.9% | -2.3% | -7.7% |
Why Pogon Szczecin
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Pogon Szczecin below the model: +9.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
83%
3+ goals
60%
No goals
5%
Pogon Szczecin and Wieczysta Kraków expected goals
Pogon Szczecin
1.95
Wieczysta Kraków
1.18
Total expected goals: 3.12
Pogon Szczecin and Wieczysta Kraków attack and defence ratings
Pogon Szczecin
Attack
0.96 -4%
Defence
0.83 -17%
Wieczysta Kraków
Attack
1.21 +21%
Defence
1.28 +28%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków: result vs prediction
Pogon Szczecin 2 – 0 Wieczysta Kraków
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Raków Częstochowa v Motor Lublin — match page
- Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia — team news & stats
- Slask Wroclaw vs Korona Kielce
- Gornik Zabrze v Lech Poznan — match page
- Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice — team news & stats
- Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow
- Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź — team news & stats
- Radomiak Radom vs Piast Gliwice
Before and after this match
Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pogon Szczecin | 46.7% | 2.14 | +9.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.8% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pogon Szczecin | 46.7% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| Wieczysta Kraków | 27.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.3% |
| No | 39.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Pogon Szczecin win | 32.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 45.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.3% |
Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków stats
Pogon Szczecin and Wieczysta Kraków recent form
| Pogon Szczecin |
DLDDWW |
| Wieczysta Kraków |
DLLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Pogon Szczecin and Wieczysta Kraków going into this match
Pogon Szczecin record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wieczysta Kraków record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.8%, draw 26.0%, away 29.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.02 | 3.65 | 3.35 |
| 1xBet | 2.11 | 3.54 | 3.16 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.00 | 3.65 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.09 | 3.54 | 3.15 |
| Pinnacle | 2.17 | 3.80 | 3.17 |
| SBO | 2.05 | 3.14 | 2.91 |
| Unibet | 1.85 | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.10 ▲ +0.21
X
3.54 ▼ -0.20
2
3.15 ▼ -0.43
13 snapshots recorded, from .