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Ekstraklasa · Full time ·Matchday 9

Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom

5 – 1 Full time

1′Guilherme Luiz
3′Pablo Rodriguez Delgado
6′Che Nunnely
9′Patrick Walemark
14′Lucas Lima Linhares
41′Allahyar Sayyadmanesh
45′Romário BaróRafał Wolski
45′Lucas Lima LinharesIbrahima Camará
51′Patrick Walemark
60′Joel Pereira
62′Filip JagiełłoLuis Palma
62′Mikael IshakY. Agnero
67′Pablo Rodriguez Delgado
67′Che NunnelyManu
70′Allahyar SayyadmaneshDaniel Håkans
70′Patrick WalemarkLeo Bengtsson
73′Guilherme LuizBi Irié Fernand Gouré
74′Christos DonisRoberto Oliveira Alves
81′Joel PereiraRobert Gumny

Stadion Miejski, PoznanReferee: Jaroslaw Przybyl

Lech Poznan 70%
Draw 18%
Radomiak Radom 12%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

26 Shots 12
9 Shots on target 5
62 Possession % 38
10 Corners 6
8 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 1
4 Saves 3
463 Accurate passes 261

Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLech PoznanDrawRadomiak Radom
Model71.6%18.0%10.4%
Market69.0%17.8%13.1%
Final69.7%17.9%12.4%
Edge+2.6%+0.2%-2.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Lech Poznan

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.44 vs 0.86.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Lech Poznan below the model: +2.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Lech Poznan ↓ / Radomiak Radom → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 9% 2 11% 9% 3 9% 8% 4+ 10% 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 64%
No goals 4%

Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom expected goals

Lech Poznan 2.44
Radomiak Radom 0.86

Total expected goals: 3.30

Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom attack and defence ratings

Lech Poznan

Attack 1.36 +36%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Radomiak Radom

Attack 0.72 -28%
Defence 1.14 +14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom: result vs prediction

Lech Poznan 5 – 1 Radomiak Radom

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Ekstraklasa

Before and after this match

Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Lech Poznan 69.7% 1.43 +2.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 64.1% 1.56 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.2% 1.88 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 87.6% 1.14 — —
Handicap -1 Lech Poznan win 49.8% 2.01 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Lech Poznan69.7%
Draw17.9%
Radomiak Radom12.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564.1%
Under 2.535.9%
Both teams to scoreYes53.2%
No46.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)87.6%
12 (either side)82.1%
X2 (draw or away)30.3%
Handicap -1Lech Poznan win49.8%
Push (exactly one goal)21.6%
Loss28.5%
Correct score (top 3)2-011.0%
2-19.4%
3-09.0%

Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom stats

Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom recent form

newest first
Lech Poznan LLWWWD
Radomiak Radom LDWWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom going into this match

league record before kick-off

Lech Poznan record

  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Radomiak Radom record

  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.

Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Lech Poznan wins 4Draws 1Radomiak Radom wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-16Radomiak RadomLech PoznanEkstraklasa1-3
2025-11-23Lech PoznanRadomiak RadomEkstraklasa4-1
2025-04-27Radomiak RadomLech PoznanEkstraklasa2-2
2024-10-26Lech PoznanRadomiak RadomEkstraklasa2-1
2023-12-16Radomiak RadomLech PoznanEkstraklasa2-2
2023-07-30Lech PoznanRadomiak RadomEkstraklasa2-0
2023-04-24Radomiak RadomLech PoznanEkstraklasa1-1
2022-10-09Lech PoznanRadomiak RadomEkstraklasa1-0
2021-12-11Radomiak RadomLech PoznanEkstraklasa2-1
2021-07-23Lech PoznanRadomiak RadomEkstraklasa0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 69.0%, draw 17.8%, away 13.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.33 5.15 7.46
Bet365 1.33 4.75 7.00
BetVictor 1.33 5.00 7.00
Betano 1.37 5.20 6.70
Betfair 1.33 5.50 7.00
Marathonbet 1.32 5.15 7.40
Pinnacle 1.36 5.56 7.65
SBO 1.34 5.03 6.28
William Hill 1.35 5.00 7.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.33 ▼ -0.02
X 5.15 ▲ +0.12
2 7.00 ▼ -0.11

14 snapshots recorded, from .