Garuda Lions
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UEFA Europa League · Full time ·League Stage - 3

Sturm Graz vs Marseille

1 – 0 Full time

13′Oumar Diakité
24′Angel Gomes
32′Oumar Diakité
45′Angel GomesHimad Abdelli
45′Neal MaupayIgor Paixão
45′Oumar DiakitéBelmin Beganovic
63′Luca Weinhandl
65′Geoffrey KondogbiaPierre-Emile Højbjerg
65′Nayef AguerdCJ Egan-Riley
80′Amine Gouiri
83′Kelyann BezahafTimothy Weah
84′Arjan Malić
87′Jacob Peter HödlAlbert Vallci
90′Valmir MatoshiJulian Halwachs
90′Bamo Meite

Stadion Graz-Liebenau, GrazReferee: Nenad Minakovic

Sturm Graz 34%
Draw 24%
Marseille 43%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 14
5 Shots on target 1
29 Possession % 71
2 Corners 4
23 Fouls 9
3 Offsides 1
1 Saves 4
181 Accurate passes 595

Sturm Graz vs Marseille overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Sturm Graz vs Marseille

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySturm GrazDrawMarseille
Model64.2%18.6%17.2%
Market23.5%25.4%51.1%
Final33.7%23.7%42.6%
Edge+10.2%-1.7%-8.5%

Confidence: Medium · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Sturm Graz ↓ / Marseille → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 2 6% 9% 6% 3 6% 8% 5% 4+ 7% 9% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 76%
No goals 3%

Sturm Graz and Marseille expected goals

Sturm Graz 2.63
Marseille 1.35

Total expected goals: 3.98

Sturm Graz and Marseille attack and defence ratings

Sturm Graz

Attack 1.20 +20%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Marseille

Attack 1.22 +22%
Defence 1.43 +43%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Sturm Graz vs Marseille: result vs prediction

Sturm Graz 1 – 0 Marseille

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

UEFA Europa League

Before and after this match

Sturm Graz vs Marseille markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Marseille 42.6% 2.35 -8.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 75.9% 1.32 — —
Both teams to score Yes 69.4% 1.44 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.3% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 82.8% 1.21 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Sturm Graz33.7%
Draw23.7%
Marseille42.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575.9%
Under 2.524.1%
Both teams to scoreYes69.4%
No30.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)57.4%
12 (either side)76.3%
X2 (draw or away)66.3%
Handicap -1Marseille win7.3%
Push (exactly one goal)9.9%
Loss82.8%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.7%
3-17.7%
1-17.3%

Sturm Graz vs Marseille stats

Sturm Graz and Marseille recent form

newest first
Sturm Graz WLWLDW
Marseille WLWLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Sturm Graz vs Marseille head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Sturm Graz vs Marseille odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 23.5%, draw 25.4%, away 51.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.16 3.88 1.88
Bet365 4.10 3.70 1.85
BetVictor 3.80 3.70 1.83
Betano 3.95 3.85 1.87
Betfair 4.00 3.75 1.85
Dafabet 4.10 3.85 1.87
Marathonbet 4.10 3.82 1.85
Pinnacle 4.27 3.73 1.88
SBO 2.98 3.09 2.04
William Hill 3.90 3.60 1.85

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.05 ▲ +0.55
X 3.74 ▲ +0.08
2 1.86 ▼ -0.17

12 snapshots recorded, from .