Sturm Graz
vs
Marseille
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sturm Graz
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Sturm Graz vs Marseille overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sturm Graz vs Marseille
| Probability | Sturm Graz | Draw | Marseille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.9% | 20.1% | 18.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 61.9% | 20.1% | 18.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Sturm Graz
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.41 vs 1.27.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Sturm Graz vs Marseille match preview
Sturm Graz enters this UEFA Europa League match with a 62% probability of winning against Marseille, who have an 18% chance. The expected goals for Sturm Graz stand at 2.41, while Marseille is projected to score 1.27. The most likely scoreline suggested by the model is 2-1 in favor of Sturm Graz, with a 9% likelihood.
Both teams are expected to contribute to the scoreline, as the model indicates a 66% chance for both teams to score and a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match. Sturm Graz's recent form shows a mixed bag with two wins in their last six matches, while Marseille is struggling, having lost five of their last six games. The confidence grade for this forecast is B.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sturm Graz and Marseille expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.68
Sturm Graz and Marseille attack and defence ratings
Sturm Graz
Marseille
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
- Lech Poznan vs Sunderland
- Juventus v Rennes — match page
- Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen — team news & stats
- Ferencvarosi TC vs Torreense — team news & stats
- OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen — team news & stats
- Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva — team news & stats
- Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar — match page
- Bournemouth v AC Milan — match page
Before and after this match
Sturm Graz vs Marseille markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sturm Graz | 61.9% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.0% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Sturm Graz win | 41.1% | 2.43 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sturm Graz | 61.9% |
| Draw | 20.1% | |
| Marseille | 18.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.2% |
| No | 33.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sturm Graz win | 41.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 38.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.3% |
| 1-1 | 8.5% | |
| 3-1 | 7.5% |
Sturm Graz vs Marseille stats
Sturm Graz and Marseille recent form
| Sturm Graz |
LDWWLD |
| Marseille |
LLLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.