Bournemouth
vs
AC Milan
3 – 0 Full time
| 8′ | Justin Kluivert | ||
| 16′ | Bafode Diakite | ||
| 27′ | Mike Maignan | ||
| 29′ | Tyler Adams | ||
| 32′ | Omari HutchinsonLorenzo Torriani | ||
| 32′ | Marcus Tavernier | ||
| 35′ | Pervis Estupinan | ||
| 45′ | Pervis EstupinanDavide Bartesaghi | ||
| 45′ | Ruben Loftus-CheekAdrien Rabiot | ||
| 62′ | Tyler AdamsLewis Cook | ||
| 62′ | Marcus TavernierRayan Vitor Simplício Rocha | ||
| 62′ | Justin KluivertAlex Tóth | ||
| 63′ | Fikayo Tomori | ||
| 65′ | Francisco EvanilsonÁlvaro Rodríguez | ||
| 66′ | Fikayo TomoriSankhoun Diawara | ||
| 76′ | Diego MoreiraChristian Comotto | ||
| 77′ | Alex TóthAmine Adli | ||
| 81′ | Koni De Winter | ||
| 84′ | Amine Adli |
Match stats
| 20 | Shots | 3 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 0 |
| 64 | Possession % | 36 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 0 | Saves | 4 |
| 452 | Accurate passes | 226 |
Bournemouth vs AC Milan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bournemouth vs AC Milan
| Probability | Bournemouth | Draw | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.4% | 20.1% | 16.5% |
| Market | 48.4% | 24.9% | 26.7% |
| Final | 52.1% | 23.7% | 24.2% |
| Edge | +3.8% | -1.2% | -2.5% |
Why Bournemouth
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.36 vs 1.17.
- The market prices Bournemouth below our published probability: +3.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bournemouth and AC Milan expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.54
Bournemouth and AC Milan attack and defence ratings
Bournemouth
AC Milan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Bournemouth vs AC Milan: result vs prediction
Bournemouth 3 – 0 AC Milan
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
- Lech Poznan vs Sunderland
- Juventus v Rennes — match page
- Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen — team news & stats
- Sturm Graz vs Marseille
- Ferencvarosi TC vs Torreense — team news & stats
- OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen — team news & stats
- Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva — team news & stats
- Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar — match page
Before and after this match
Bournemouth vs AC Milan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bournemouth | 52.1% | 1.92 | +3.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Bournemouth win | 41.9% | 2.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bournemouth | 52.1% |
| Draw | 23.7% | |
| AC Milan | 24.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.4% |
| No | 36.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bournemouth win | 41.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 36.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.5% |
| 1-1 | 8.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.1% |
Bournemouth vs AC Milan stats
Bournemouth and AC Milan recent form
| Bournemouth |
WWLLWD |
| AC Milan |
WWDWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bournemouth vs AC Milan head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Bournemouth vs AC Milan odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.4%, draw 24.9%, away 26.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.01 | 3.86 | 3.72 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.70 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.85 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.14 | 3.70 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.00 | 3.84 | 3.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.97 | 3.94 | 3.65 |
| SBO | 1.95 | 3.17 | 3.10 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .