Bournemouth
vs
AC Milan
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bournemouth
2 β 1 Predicted score Β· 10% model probability
Bournemouth vs AC Milan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bournemouth vs AC Milan
| Probability | Bournemouth | Draw | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.9% | 21.3% | 17.8% |
| Market | β | β | β |
| Final | 60.9% | 21.3% | 17.8% |
| Edge | β | β | β |
Why Bournemouth
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.16.
Bournemouth vs AC Milan match preview
Bournemouth hosts AC Milan in the UEFA Europa League with a strong probability of victory at 61%, while the draw stands at 21% and AC Milan at 18%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. The expectation for over 2.5 goals is 66%, and both teams are projected to score 62% of the time.
Bournemouth's expected goals are 2.24, significantly higher than AC Milan's 1.16. Recent form shows Bournemouth with a mixed record of L-W-D-W-D-D, while AC Milan has been more consistent with W-L-D-D-W-W. The confidence grade for this matchup is A, indicating a strong level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bournemouth and AC Milan expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.40
Bournemouth and AC Milan attack and defence ratings
Bournemouth
AC Milan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bournemouth vs AC Milan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bournemouth | 60.9% | 1.64 | β | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.0% | 1.52 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.2% | 1.61 | β | β |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.2% | 1.22 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Bournemouth win | 39.3% | 2.54 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bournemouth | 60.9% |
| Draw | 21.3% | |
| AC Milan | 17.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.2% |
| No | 37.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bournemouth win | 39.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 39.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 1-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 8.4% |
Bournemouth vs AC Milan stats
Bournemouth and AC Milan recent form
| Bournemouth |
LWDWDD |
| AC Milan |
WLDDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.