Udinese
vs
AC Milan
Garuda Lions Prediction: AC Milan
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 1.56.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — AC Milan is the favourite, not a value bet.
Udinese vs AC Milan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Udinese vs AC Milan
| Probability | Udinese | Draw | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.2% | 23.4% | 51.4% |
| Market | 18.7% | 24.5% | 56.8% |
| Final | 20.4% | 24.2% | 55.4% |
| Edge | +1.6% | -0.3% | -1.3% |
Why AC Milan
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 1.56.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.81, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.4% per unit staked (our 55.4% × 1.81 − 1).
Udinese vs AC Milan match preview
In the upcoming Serie A match between Udinese and AC Milan, the probabilities indicate a strong advantage for the visitors, with AC Milan holding a 57% chance of victory compared to Udinese's 19%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 1.39 for Udinese and 2.47 for AC Milan.
Recent form shows Udinese struggling with five consecutive losses, while AC Milan has had a mixed run, including two wins and two draws in their last six matches. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 74%, and there is a 70% chance that both teams will score, suggesting an engaging contest ahead. The head-to-head record favors AC Milan, who have won four of the last six encounters.
Udinese and AC Milan team news
Udinese news
- D. Alaba — calf injury
- I. Gueye — ankle injury
- N. Zaniolo — thigh injury
- V. Bayo — thigh injury
AC Milan news
- A. Saelemaekers — ankle injury
- G. Ramos — calf injury
- M. Gabbia — thigh injury
- S. Chukwueze — hip injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Udinese and AC Milan expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.79
Udinese and AC Milan attack and defence ratings
Udinese
AC Milan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Udinese vs AC Milan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Milan | 55.4% | 1.80 | -1.3% | 1.81 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.6% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.6% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Udinese | 20.4% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| AC Milan | 55.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.1% |
| No | 27.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | AC Milan win | 32.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 48.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.4% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | |
| 2-2 | 6.8% |
Udinese vs AC Milan stats
Udinese and AC Milan recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Udinese and AC Milan season so far
Udinese record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
AC Milan record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Udinese vs AC Milan head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | AC Milan | Udinese | Serie A | 0-3 |
| 2025-09-20 | Udinese | AC Milan | Serie A | 0-3 |
| 2025-04-11 | Udinese | AC Milan | Serie A | 0-4 |
| 2024-10-19 | AC Milan | Udinese | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2024-01-20 | Udinese | AC Milan | Serie A | 2-3 |
| 2023-11-04 | AC Milan | Udinese | Serie A | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Udinese vs AC Milan odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.0%, draw 24.6%, away 56.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.09 | 4.04 | 1.75 |
| Bet365 | 5.50 | 3.70 | 1.67 |
| BetVictor | 5.00 | 3.75 | 1.65 |
| Betano | 5.00 | 3.85 | 1.70 |
| Betfair | 5.50 | 3.90 | 1.67 |
| Dafabet | 5.20 | 3.90 | 1.69 |
| Marathonbet | 4.95 | 3.92 | 1.70 |
| Pinnacle | 5.18 | 4.01 | 1.68 |
| SBO | 4.27 | 3.40 | 1.67 |
| William Hill | 4.75 | 3.70 | 1.67 |
| pinnacle | 4.36 | 3.68 | 1.81 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
25 snapshots recorded, from .