Cagliari
vs
Bologna
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bologna
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Cagliari vs Bologna overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cagliari vs Bologna
| Probability | Cagliari | Draw | Bologna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.6% | 29.2% | 38.2% |
| Market | 29.6% | 31.4% | 39.0% |
| Final | 30.4% | 30.8% | 38.8% |
| Edge | +3.0% | -2.2% | -0.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.52, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Cagliari vs Bologna match preview
Cagliari faces Bologna in a Serie A clash with a predicted outcome leaning slightly towards the visitors. Cagliari holds a 30% chance of winning, while Bologna's probability stands at 39%. The most likely scoreline according to the model is 1-2 in favor of Bologna, with an expected goals tally of 1.40 for Cagliari and 1.53 for Bologna.
In terms of recent form, Cagliari has recorded a mixed set of results with one draw and three wins in their last six matches, while Bologna has struggled, managing just one win and two draws in their recent outings. The model indicates a 56% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance that both teams will score, suggesting an engaging match ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cagliari and Bologna expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.93
Cagliari and Bologna attack and defence ratings
Cagliari
Bologna
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cagliari vs Bologna markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bologna | 38.8% | 2.58 | -0.8% | 2.52 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cagliari | 30.4% |
| Draw | 30.8% | |
| Bologna | 38.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% |
| No | 38.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bologna win | 19.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.4% | |
| Loss | 61.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 2-1 | 8.0% |
Cagliari vs Bologna stats
Cagliari and Bologna recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cagliari and Bologna season so far
Cagliari record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Bologna record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Cagliari vs Bologna head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Bologna | Cagliari | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Cagliari | Bologna | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2025-03-02 | Bologna | Cagliari | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-29 | Cagliari | Bologna | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2024-01-14 | Cagliari | Bologna | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2023-09-02 | Bologna | Cagliari | Serie A | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cagliari vs Bologna odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.0%, draw 31.3%, away 38.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.35 | 3.13 | 2.52 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 3.20 | 3.00 | 2.47 |
| Dafabet | 3.10 | 3.15 | 2.44 |
| Marathonbet | 3.25 | 3.04 | 2.44 |
| Pinnacle | 3.22 | 2.95 | 2.51 |
| SBO | 2.78 | 3.00 | 2.29 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .