Como
vs
Sassuolo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Como
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Como vs Sassuolo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Como vs Sassuolo
| Probability | Como | Draw | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.3% | 20.2% | 24.5% |
| Market | 65.8% | 20.5% | 13.7% |
| Final | 63.2% | 20.4% | 16.4% |
| Edge | -10.6% | -0.3% | +10.8% |
Why Como
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 1.82.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.49, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Como vs Sassuolo match preview
Como enters this match against Sassuolo with a strong probability of winning at 63%, while Sassuolo stands at 16%. The expected goals for Como are 2.68, significantly higher than Sassuolo's 1.82, indicating a potential advantage in offensive performance. Recent form shows Como with two wins in their last three matches, while Sassuolo has struggled, managing only one win in their last six outings.
The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Como, with an 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 79% likelihood that both teams will score. Como has also had the upper hand in their recent head-to-head encounters, winning two of the last three matches against Sassuolo. The confidence grade for this forecast is rated as A.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Como and Sassuolo expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.51
Como and Sassuolo attack and defence ratings
Como
Sassuolo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Como vs Sassuolo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Como | 63.2% | 1.58 | -10.6% | 1.49 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.7% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.2% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.6% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.7% | 2.23 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Como | 63.2% |
| Draw | 20.4% | |
| Sassuolo | 16.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 17.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.2% |
| No | 20.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Como win | 37.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 44.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.2% |
| 2-2 | 6.6% | |
| 1-1 | 6.5% |
Como vs Sassuolo stats
Como and Sassuolo recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Como and Sassuolo season so far
Como record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Sassuolo record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
Como vs Sassuolo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Sassuolo | Como | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Como | Sassuolo | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-24 | Como | Sassuolo | Coppa Italia | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Como vs Sassuolo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.6%, draw 20.3%, away 14.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.49 | 4.94 | 7.10 |
| Bet365 | 1.44 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.44 | 4.70 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.44 | 4.90 | 6.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.44 | 4.80 | 6.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.43 | 4.63 | 7.02 |
| SBO | 1.39 | 4.32 | 5.61 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.40 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .