Frosinone
vs
Sassuolo
4 – 2 Full time
| 9′ | Giacomo Calò | ||
| 15′ | Domenico Berardi | ||
| 26′ | Antonio Raimondo | ||
| 30′ | Antonio Raimondo | ||
| 37′ | Kristian Thorstvedt | ||
| 57′ | Antonio Raimondo | ||
| 58′ | Kristian ThorstvedtKieron Bowie | ||
| 67′ | Sebastiano EspositoBenjamin Dominguez | ||
| 68′ | Josh DoigRafael Obrador | ||
| 68′ | Nemanja MatićLuca Lipani | ||
| 74′ | Ilario MonterisiOmar Fayed Abdelwahab El Rakhawy | ||
| 74′ | Giorgi KvernadzeAlessio Zerbin | ||
| 80′ | Anthony OyonoWisdom Amey | ||
| 80′ | Giacomo CalòMatteo Cichella | ||
| 82′ | Kieron Bowie | ||
| 83′ | Armand LaurienteCristian Volpato | ||
| 90′ | Antonio RaimondoDaniel Birligea |
Match stats
| 21 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 42 | Possession % | 58 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Offsides | 3 |
| 4 | Saves | 6 |
| 248 | Accurate passes | 376 |
Frosinone vs Sassuolo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Frosinone vs Sassuolo
| Probability | Frosinone | Draw | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.1% | 24.7% | 21.3% |
| Market | 40.1% | 25.6% | 34.3% |
| Final | 43.6% | 25.4% | 31.0% |
| Edge | +3.5% | -0.2% | -3.3% |
Why Frosinone
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Frosinone below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Frosinone and Sassuolo expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.37
Frosinone and Sassuolo attack and defence ratings
Frosinone
Sassuolo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Frosinone vs Sassuolo: result vs prediction
Frosinone 4 – 2 Sassuolo
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Frosinone vs Sassuolo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Frosinone | 43.6% | 2.30 | +3.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.5% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.9% | 2.18 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Frosinone | 43.6% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Sassuolo | 31.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.2% |
| No | 34.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Frosinone win | 33.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 45.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.5% |
Frosinone vs Sassuolo stats
Frosinone and Sassuolo recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Frosinone and Sassuolo going into this match
Frosinone record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
Sassuolo record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
Frosinone vs Sassuolo head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Sassuolo | Frosinone | Coppa Italia | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-13 | Sassuolo | Frosinone | Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2024-12-14 | Frosinone | Sassuolo | Serie B | 1-2 |
| 2024-03-09 | Sassuolo | Frosinone | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2023-09-17 | Frosinone | Sassuolo | Serie A | 4-2 |
| 2019-05-05 | Sassuolo | Frosinone | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2018-12-16 | Frosinone | Sassuolo | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2016-05-08 | Frosinone | Sassuolo | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2016-01-06 | Sassuolo | Frosinone | Serie A | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Frosinone vs Sassuolo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.9%, draw 25.8%, away 35.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.51 | 3.74 | 2.86 |
| Bet365 | 2.38 | 3.80 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.70 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.50 | 3.70 | 2.65 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.75 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.47 | 3.68 | 2.81 |
| Pinnacle | 2.38 | 3.78 | 2.91 |
| SBO | 2.47 | 3.49 | 2.38 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| pinnacle | 2.42 | 3.43 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
35 snapshots recorded, from .