Frosinone
vs
Sassuolo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Frosinone
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Frosinone vs Sassuolo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Frosinone vs Sassuolo
| Probability | Frosinone | Draw | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.1% | 22.4% | 14.4% |
| Market | 39.0% | 27.3% | 33.7% |
| Final | 45.0% | 26.1% | 28.9% |
| Edge | +24.2% | -4.9% | -19.3% |
Why Frosinone
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Frosinone below the model: +24.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Frosinone and Sassuolo expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.31
Frosinone and Sassuolo attack and defence ratings
Frosinone
Sassuolo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Frosinone vs Sassuolo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Frosinone | 45.0% | 2.22 | +24.2% | 2.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Frosinone win | 42.1% | 2.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Frosinone | 45.0% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Sassuolo | 28.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.8% |
| No | 40.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Frosinone win | 42.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 36.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 9.4% |
Frosinone vs Sassuolo stats
Frosinone and Sassuolo recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Frosinone and Sassuolo season so far
Frosinone record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
Frosinone vs Sassuolo head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Sassuolo | Frosinone | Coppa Italia | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-13 | Sassuolo | Frosinone | Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2024-12-14 | Frosinone | Sassuolo | Serie B | 1-2 |
| 2024-03-09 | Sassuolo | Frosinone | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2023-09-17 | Frosinone | Sassuolo | Serie A | 4-2 |
| 2019-05-05 | Sassuolo | Frosinone | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2018-12-16 | Frosinone | Sassuolo | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2016-05-08 | Frosinone | Sassuolo | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2016-01-06 | Sassuolo | Frosinone | Serie A | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Frosinone vs Sassuolo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.1%, draw 27.4%, away 33.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.53 | 3.54 | 2.96 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.42 | 3.45 | 2.85 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.44 | 3.60 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.46 | 3.44 | 2.88 |
| Pinnacle | 2.42 | 3.42 | 2.90 |
| SBO | 2.32 | 3.35 | 2.51 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
| pinnacle | 2.42 | 3.43 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
21 snapshots recorded, from .