Atalanta
vs
Frosinone
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atalanta
2 – 1 Predicted score · 6% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Atalanta is the favourite, not a value bet.
Atalanta vs Frosinone overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atalanta vs Frosinone
| Probability | Atalanta | Draw | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.3% | 23.1% | 48.6% |
| Market | 52.1% | 23.1% | 24.7% |
| Final | 46.2% | 23.1% | 30.7% |
| Edge | -6.0% | -0.0% | +6.0% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.86, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.1% per unit staked (our 46.2% × 1.86 − 1).
Atalanta vs Frosinone match preview
Atalanta is set to face Frosinone in a Serie A matchup with kickoff scheduled for October 25, 2026. According to our model, Atalanta holds a 51% probability of winning, while Frosinone has a 26% chance, and a draw is estimated at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Atalanta, with a 7% probability. Both teams are expected to score, with a 75% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Atalanta has recorded two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Frosinone has achieved three wins, two draws, and one loss. The expected goals for Atalanta stand at 1.85, compared to Frosinone's 2.08. In their last two encounters, Atalanta and Frosinone have each secured one victory.
Atalanta and Frosinone team news
Atalanta news
- F. Kessie — calf injury
- G. Raspadori — thigh injury
- G. Scalvini — thigh injury
- I. Hien — muscle injury
- K. Sulemana — knee injury
- O. Kossounou — thigh injury
- S. Kolasinac — thigh injury
Frosinone news
- F. Grillitsch — thigh injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atalanta and Frosinone expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.97
Atalanta and Frosinone attack and defence ratings
Atalanta
Frosinone
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atalanta vs Frosinone markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atalanta | 46.2% | 2.17 | -6.0% | 1.86 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.9% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atalanta | 46.2% |
| Draw | 23.1% | |
| Frosinone | 30.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.9% |
| No | 25.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atalanta win | 14.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13.7% | |
| Loss | 71.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.8% |
| 1-2 | 8.2% | |
| 2-2 | 7.1% |
Atalanta vs Frosinone stats
Atalanta and Frosinone recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atalanta and Frosinone season so far
Atalanta record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
Frosinone record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
Atalanta vs Frosinone head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-15 | Atalanta | Frosinone | Serie A | 5-0 |
| 2023-08-26 | Frosinone | Atalanta | Serie A | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atalanta vs Frosinone odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.3%, draw 22.9%, away 24.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.86 | 4.17 | 4.22 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 4.20 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.85 | 4.15 | 3.75 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.85 | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.80 | 4.05 | 4.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.85 | 4.18 | 3.93 |
| SBO | 1.79 | 3.67 | 3.39 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.90 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
25 snapshots recorded, from .