Ajax
vs
Atalanta
2 – 0 Full time
| 45′ | Sofyan Amrabat | ||
| 62′ | O. GloukhA. Ouazane | ||
| 62′ | D. KlaassenV. Tsygankov | ||
| 62′ | C. De KetelaereL. Samardzic | ||
| 66′ | Marcos LeonardoT. Arokodare | ||
| 68′ | Lazar Samardžić | ||
| 72′ | G. ScamaccaN. Krstovic | ||
| 80′ | G. GaetanoM. Pasalic | ||
| 80′ | E. ElmasJ. Rowe | ||
| 86′ | Nicola Zalewski | ||
| 87′ | T. Arokodare | ||
| 90′ | Marc-André Ter Stegen | ||
| 90′ | J. BrandtD. Janse | ||
| 90′ | A. Ouazane |
Match stats
| 21 | Shots | 16 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 61 | Possession % | 39 |
| 8 | Corners | 9 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 1 | Saves | 5 |
| 604 | Accurate passes | 374 |
Ajax vs Atalanta overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ajax vs Atalanta
| Probability | Ajax | Draw | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 78.2% | 12.2% | 9.6% |
| Market | 45.7% | 24.9% | 29.4% |
| Final | 53.8% | 21.7% | 24.5% |
| Edge | +8.1% | -3.2% | -5.0% |
Why Ajax
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.56 vs 1.36.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Ajax below our published probability: +8.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ajax and Atalanta expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.92
Ajax and Atalanta attack and defence ratings
Ajax
Atalanta
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ajax vs Atalanta: result vs prediction
Ajax 2 – 0 Atalanta
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
- Kairat Almaty v Panathinaikos — match page
- FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia — team news & stats
- Getafe vs FC Lugano — team news & stats
- FK Crvena Zvezda v FC Copenhagen — match page
- Trabzonspor vs Heart Of Midlothian — team news & stats
- FK Jablonec v Brighton — match page
- Inter Club d'Escaldes vs Universitatea Craiova
- Pafos vs Riga
Before and after this match
Ajax vs Atalanta markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajax | 53.8% | 1.86 | +8.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87.0% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.3% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Ajax win | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajax | 53.8% |
| Draw | 21.7% | |
| Atalanta | 24.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 13.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.4% |
| No | 27.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ajax win | 61.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.3% | |
| Loss | 22.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 7.5% |
| 4-1 | 6.7% | |
| 2-1 | 6.2% |
Ajax vs Atalanta stats
Ajax and Atalanta recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ajax and Atalanta going into this match
Ajax record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 3.3 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 2.8 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Ajax vs Atalanta head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-12-09 | Ajax | Atalanta | UEFA Champions League | 0-1 |
| 2020-10-27 | Atalanta | Ajax | UEFA Champions League | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ajax vs Atalanta odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.7%, draw 24.9%, away 29.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.09 | 3.84 | 3.37 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.80 | 3.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.90 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 3.90 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.21 | 3.75 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.01 | 3.70 | 3.25 |
| Pinnacle | 2.09 | 3.88 | 3.29 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 3.25 | 2.78 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .