Ajax
vs
Atalanta
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ajax
3 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Ajax vs Atalanta overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ajax vs Atalanta
| Probability | Ajax | Draw | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 83.4% | 10.8% | 5.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 83.4% | 10.8% | 5.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Ajax
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.42 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Ajax vs Atalanta match preview
Ajax faces Atalanta in the UEFA Europa Conference League with a strong probability of winning at 83%. The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 3-0, with Ajax expected to generate 3.42 expected goals compared to Atalanta's 0.92. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match stands at 81%, while both teams scoring is projected at 59%.
In terms of recent form, Ajax has recorded a sequence of results with two wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches, while Atalanta has experienced three losses followed by two wins in the same timeframe. This context suggests a competitive match, but Ajax's stronger form and statistical edge may play a significant role in the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ajax and Atalanta expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.35
Ajax and Atalanta attack and defence ratings
Ajax
Atalanta
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
- FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia — team news & stats
- Monaco v Freiburg — match page
- SC Braga v Gent — match page
- FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden
- Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- Lincoln Red Imps FC vs Twente — team news & stats
- FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split — team news & stats
- Borac Banja Luka vs KuPS — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Ajax vs Atalanta markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajax | 83.4% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.8% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 94.2% | 1.06 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Ajax win | 67.5% | 1.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajax | 83.4% |
| Draw | 10.8% | |
| Atalanta | 5.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 19.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.6% |
| No | 41.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 94.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 89.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 16.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ajax win | 67.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.9% | |
| Loss | 16.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 8.7% |
| 3-1 | 8.0% | |
| 2-0 | 7.6% |
Ajax vs Atalanta stats
Ajax and Atalanta recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ajax and Atalanta season so far
Ajax record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.