UEFA Europa Conference League · Full time ·League Stage - 2

Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos

1 – 5 Full time

6′V. Taborda
24′C. Dessers
25′Erkin Tapalov
32′O. BaybekA. Shirobokov
45′Aleksandr Mrynskiy
45′Erik Palmer Brown
46′EdmilsonO. Jukkola
47′C. Dessers
56′E. CamaraK. Kangwa
56′C. DessersE. Rastoder
57′K. Kangwa
65′L. MataL. Kurgin
65′J. OksanenD. Kasabulat
65′M. GualI. Bekbolat
65′I. LouzaP. Chirivella
65′S. AndinoF. Pellistri
75′S. de VrijG. Katris
75′E. Rastoder
77′Kings Kangwa
79′I. Bekbolat

Almaty Central Stadium, AlmatyReferee: A. Lindhout

Kairat Almaty 22%
Draw 25%
Panathinaikos 53%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

12 Shots 11
2 Shots on target 6
43 Possession % 57
5 Corners 4
13 Fouls 15
2 Offsides 2
1 Saves 1
277 Accurate passes 417

Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityKairat AlmatyDrawPanathinaikos
Model32.9%29.6%37.5%
Market18.4%23.7%57.9%
Final22.0%25.2%52.8%
Edge+3.6%+1.5%-5.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Panathinaikos

  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Kairat Almaty ↓ / Panathinaikos → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 9% 1 9% 14% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 45%
No goals 10%

Kairat Almaty and Panathinaikos expected goals

Kairat Almaty 1.19
Panathinaikos 1.29

Total expected goals: 2.48

Kairat Almaty and Panathinaikos attack and defence ratings

Kairat Almaty

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 0.77 -23%

Panathinaikos

Attack 1.41 +41%
Defence 0.63 -37%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos: result vs prediction

Kairat Almaty 1 – 5 Panathinaikos

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

UEFA Europa Conference League

Before and after this match

Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Panathinaikos 52.8% 1.90 -5.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 54.8% 1.82 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.8% 1.93 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 78.0% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 62.5% 1.60 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Kairat Almaty22.0%
Draw25.2%
Panathinaikos52.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545.2%
Under 2.554.8%
Both teams to scoreYes51.8%
No48.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)47.2%
12 (either side)74.8%
X2 (draw or away)78.0%
Handicap -1Panathinaikos win17.3%
Push (exactly one goal)20.2%
Loss62.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.1%
0-09.6%
0-19.5%

Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos stats

Kairat Almaty and Panathinaikos recent form

newest first

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Kairat Almaty and Panathinaikos going into this match

league record before kick-off

Panathinaikos record

  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 18.7%, draw 23.7%, away 57.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 5.18 4.03 1.68
Bet365 5.00 4.10 1.62
BetVictor 5.25 3.90 1.60
Betano 5.10 4.00 1.65
Betfair 5.00 3.90 1.62
Dafabet 5.00 4.00 1.69
Marathonbet 5.00 3.88 1.62
Pinnacle 5.61 4.00 1.62
SBO 4.35 3.45 1.60
William Hill 5.00 3.75 1.65

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 5.09 ▲ +1.08
X 3.95 ▲ +0.20
2 1.62 ▼ -0.23

11 snapshots recorded, from .