Panathinaikos
vs
Asteras Tripolis
Garuda Lions Prediction: Panathinaikos
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis
| Probability | Panathinaikos | Draw | Asteras Tripolis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.1% | 24.1% | 13.8% |
| Market | 77.6% | 15.4% | 7.0% |
| Final | 73.7% | 17.6% | 8.7% |
| Edge | -15.5% | +8.7% | +6.8% |
Why Panathinaikos
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.25, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis match preview
Panathinaikos enters this match against Asteras Tripolis with a strong probability of winning at 73%, while Asteras Tripolis has a 9% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.66 for Panathinaikos and 0.81 for Asteras Tripolis. Recent form shows Panathinaikos has won five of their last six matches, while Asteras Tripolis has had a mixed run with three wins and three draws in their last six games.
In their last two encounters, Panathinaikos has secured two victories against Asteras Tripolis, with no draws or losses. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 45%, and both teams to score stands at 46%. Despite the favorable statistics for Panathinaikos, the confidence grade for this match is rated as C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Panathinaikos and Asteras Tripolis expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.59
Panathinaikos and Asteras Tripolis attack and defence ratings
Panathinaikos
Asteras Tripolis
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Panathinaikos | 73.7% | 1.36 | -15.5% | 1.25 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.3% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 37.9% | 2.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Panathinaikos | 73.7% |
| Draw | 17.6% | |
| Asteras Tripolis | 8.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.6% |
| No | 54.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 26.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Panathinaikos win | 37.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.7% | |
| Loss | 37.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 12.7% |
| 2-0 | 12.6% | |
| 1-1 | 11.4% |
Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis stats
Panathinaikos and Asteras Tripolis recent form
| Panathinaikos |
WLWWWW |
| Asteras Tripolis |
WDWDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Panathinaikos and Asteras Tripolis season so far
Panathinaikos record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Asteras Tripolis record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Asteras Tripolis | Panathinaikos | Super League 1 | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-26 | Panathinaikos | Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | 2-0 |
| 2024-12-08 | Asteras Tripolis | Panathinaikos | Super League 1 | 0-1 |
| 2024-08-18 | Panathinaikos | Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | 0-1 |
| 2024-01-21 | Panathinaikos | Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | 2-0 |
| 2023-09-28 | Asteras Tripolis | Panathinaikos | Super League 1 | 1-4 |
| 2023-01-30 | Asteras Tripolis | Panathinaikos | Super League 1 | 1-0 |
| 2022-10-09 | Panathinaikos | Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | 1-0 |
| 2022-01-29 | Panathinaikos | Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | 0-1 |
| 2021-10-23 | Asteras Tripolis | Panathinaikos | Super League 1 | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 77.5%, draw 15.5%, away 7.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.20 | 6.00 | 14.10 |
| Bet365 | 1.25 | 5.50 | 12.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.18 | 5.75 | 13.00 |
| Betano | 1.23 | 5.80 | 15.50 |
| Betfair | 1.20 | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.22 | 6.40 | 13.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.19 | 6.00 | 14.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.18 | 6.75 | 13.50 |
| SBO | 1.18 | 5.32 | 9.45 |
| William Hill | 1.20 | 6.00 | 13.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
54 snapshots recorded, from .