Asteras Tripolis
vs
Levadiakos
Garuda Lions Prediction: Asteras Tripolis
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.87.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Asteras Tripolis is the favourite, not a value bet.
Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos
| Probability | Asteras Tripolis | Draw | Levadiakos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.4% | 28.2% | 20.3% |
| Market | 46.8% | 29.5% | 23.7% |
| Final | 48.0% | 29.2% | 22.9% |
| Edge | +1.2% | -0.3% | -0.8% |
Why Asteras Tripolis
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.87.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +10.3% per unit staked (our 48.0% × 2.30 − 1).
Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos match preview
Asteras Tripolis faces Levadiakos in Super League 1, with Asteras Tripolis holding a 46% probability of winning compared to Levadiakos at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 15%. Asteras Tripolis has shown mixed recent form with two wins, two draws, and one loss, while Levadiakos is struggling, having not won in their last six matches.
In terms of expected goals, Asteras Tripolis is projected to score 1.57, whereas Levadiakos is expected to net 0.69. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals stand at 39%, and both teams to score is at 41%. Historically, in their last four encounters, Asteras Tripolis has yet to secure a win, with Levadiakos winning three times and one match ending in a draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.40
Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos attack and defence ratings
Asteras Tripolis
Levadiakos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Asteras Tripolis | 48.0% | 2.08 | +1.2% | 2.30 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.6% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Asteras Tripolis | 48.0% |
| Draw | 29.2% | |
| Levadiakos | 22.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.9% |
| No | 53.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Asteras Tripolis win | 27.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.2% | |
| Loss | 48.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 12.6% | |
| 2-0 | 10.6% |
Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos stats
Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos recent form
| Asteras Tripolis |
LWDWDD |
| Levadiakos |
DLLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos season so far
Asteras Tripolis record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
Levadiakos record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 7 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Levadiakos | Asteras Tripolis | Greece Cup | 2-0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Levadiakos | Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | 3-1 |
| 2025-12-07 | Asteras Tripolis | Levadiakos | Super League 1 | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-29 | Levadiakos | Asteras Tripolis | Greece Cup | 1-0 |
| 2025-01-19 | Levadiakos | Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | 1-2 |
| 2024-09-28 | Asteras Tripolis | Levadiakos | Super League 1 | 1-1 |
| 2023-04-08 | Asteras Tripolis | Levadiakos | Super League 1 | 0-1 |
| 2023-01-15 | Asteras Tripolis | Levadiakos | Super League 1 | 0-0 |
| 2022-09-18 | Levadiakos | Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | 1-1 |
| 2021-10-26 | Levadiakos | Asteras Tripolis | Cup | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.7%, draw 29.5%, away 23.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.00 | 3.16 | 3.94 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.13 | 3.80 |
| Betano | 2.00 | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.03 | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.98 | 3.16 | 3.94 |
| Pinnacle | 1.99 | 3.18 | 4.14 |
| SBO | 1.98 | 2.90 | 3.34 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.10 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
25 snapshots recorded, from .