Levadiakos
vs
Aris Thessalonikis
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aris Thessalonikis
0 – 1 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.79.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Aris Thessalonikis is the favourite, not a value bet.
Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis
| Probability | Levadiakos | Draw | Aris Thessalonikis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.9% | 30.8% | 48.3% |
| Market | 24.7% | 28.7% | 46.6% |
| Final | 23.7% | 29.2% | 47.0% |
| Edge | -0.9% | +0.5% | +0.4% |
Why Aris Thessalonikis
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.0% per unit staked (our 47.0% × 2.02 − 1).
Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis match preview
Levadiakos faces Aris Thessalonikis in a Super League 1 match, with the probabilities indicating a 27% chance of a Levadiakos win, a 29% chance of a draw, and a 44% chance for Aris Thessalonikis to secure victory. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring with a 15% probability. Expected goals are calculated at 0.82 for Levadiakos and 1.25 for Aris Thessalonikis, suggesting a competitive match.
In terms of recent form, Levadiakos has struggled, recording two draws and four losses in their last six matches. Conversely, Aris Thessalonikis has shown better performance, with four wins and two draws in the same period. The head-to-head record favors Aris, with five wins compared to Levadiakos' one win and four draws in their last ten encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.13
Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis attack and defence ratings
Levadiakos
Aris Thessalonikis
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aris Thessalonikis | 47.0% | 2.13 | +0.4% | 2.02 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.3% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Levadiakos | 23.7% |
| Draw | 29.2% | |
| Aris Thessalonikis | 47.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.7% |
| No | 58.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aris Thessalonikis win | 23.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.7% | |
| Loss | 51.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 14.6% |
| 1-1 | 13.9% | |
| 0-0 | 13.1% |
Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis stats
Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis recent form
| Levadiakos |
DDLLDL |
| Aris Thessalonikis |
WWWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis season so far
Levadiakos record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 7 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aris Thessalonikis record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Aris Thessalonikis | Levadiakos | Super League 1 | 3-0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Levadiakos | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-25 | Aris Thessalonikis | Levadiakos | Super League 1 | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-26 | Levadiakos | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-16 | Levadiakos | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | 4-1 |
| 2024-11-03 | Aris Thessalonikis | Levadiakos | Super League 1 | 3-1 |
| 2023-01-11 | Aris Thessalonikis | Levadiakos | Cup | 1-0 |
| 2022-12-21 | Levadiakos | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | 1-1 |
| 2022-12-16 | Levadiakos | Aris Thessalonikis | Cup | 1-2 |
| 2022-08-21 | Aris Thessalonikis | Levadiakos | Super League 1 | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.7%, draw 28.7%, away 46.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.78 | 3.25 | 2.01 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.20 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.90 | 3.35 | 2.02 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
| Marathonbet | 3.78 | 3.25 | 1.99 |
| Pinnacle | 3.93 | 3.29 | 2.00 |
| William Hill | 3.80 | 3.10 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .