Panathinaikos
vs
Aris Thessalonikis
2 – 1 Full time
| 10′ | S. Kontouris | ||
| 40′ | R. Mir | ||
| 58′ | T. Dele-BashiruC. Kouame | ||
| 58′ | O. BoussaidB. Garre | ||
| 58′ | E. Palmer-BrownR. Van Drongelen | ||
| 58′ | F. PellistriL. Garcia | ||
| 58′ | R. MirT. Kadewere | ||
| 58′ | A. JagusicS. Andino | ||
| 65′ | T. Kadewere | ||
| 74′ | S. KontourisI. Nebis | ||
| 75′ | S. PapasarafianosM. Voriazidis | ||
| 78′ | P. ChirivellaE. Camara | ||
| 89′ | E. Rastoder | ||
| 90′ | M. HonglaK. Galanopoulos |
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis
| Probability | Panathinaikos | Draw | Aris Thessalonikis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.9% | 21.9% | 14.2% |
| Market | 56.3% | 26.1% | 17.6% |
| Final | 58.2% | 25.0% | 16.7% |
| Edge | +1.9% | -1.0% | -0.9% |
Why Panathinaikos
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.96
Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis attack and defence ratings
Panathinaikos
Aris Thessalonikis
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis: result vs prediction
Panathinaikos 2 – 1 Aris Thessalonikis
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Greek Cup - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Panathinaikos | 58.2% | 1.72 | +1.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.3% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Panathinaikos win | 39.8% | 2.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Panathinaikos | 58.2% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| Aris Thessalonikis | 16.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.6% |
| No | 47.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Panathinaikos win | 39.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 37.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.1% |
| 1-1 | 10.4% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis stats
Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis recent form
| Panathinaikos |
WWWWLW |
| Aris Thessalonikis |
WWWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Panathinaikos | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | 3-1 |
| 2026-01-14 | Panathinaikos | Aris Thessalonikis | Greece Cup | 3-0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Aris Thessalonikis | Panathinaikos | Super League 1 | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-09 | Aris Thessalonikis | Panathinaikos | Super League 1 | 2-0 |
| 2024-10-27 | Panathinaikos | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | 1-1 |
| 2024-05-25 | Panathinaikos | Aris Thessalonikis | Cup | 1-0 |
| 2024-04-28 | Panathinaikos | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | 0-1 |
| 2024-04-07 | Aris Thessalonikis | Panathinaikos | Super League 1 | 0-2 |
| 2024-02-28 | Panathinaikos | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | 2-0 |
| 2023-11-26 | Aris Thessalonikis | Panathinaikos | Super League 1 | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.3%, draw 26.1%, away 17.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.61 | 3.38 | 5.19 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.60 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.60 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.65 | 5.50 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.68 | 3.85 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.59 | 3.38 | 5.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.61 | 3.45 | 5.16 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.40 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .