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Greece Cup · Full time ·Greek Cup - 4

Nestos Chrisoupolis vs Kalamata

0 – 2 Full time

46′S. FrancoA. Dermitzakis
46′D. StoiljkovicK. Vryzas
46′D. DiarraJ. Cataldi
46′K. GiaxisO. Memetoglu
51′J. Bolivar
59′M. SoumahoroM. Carreazo
60′J. BonettoJ. Miranda
60′J. BolivarD. Kurminowski
60′M. CantaveF. Dimitriadis
71′P. DermitzakisF. Chavos
74′P. Panagiotou
75′P. PanagiotouA. Perez
76′F. Miyenga
90′J. Miranda

Chrysoupoli Municipal Stadium, Chrysoupoli

Nestos Chrisoupolis 21%
Draw 26%
Kalamata 52%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Nestos Chrisoupolis vs Kalamata overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Nestos Chrisoupolis vs Kalamata

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNestos ChrisoupolisDrawKalamata
Model36.7%28.1%35.2%
Market16.3%25.7%58.1%
Final21.4%26.3%52.3%
Edge+5.1%+0.6%-5.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Kalamata

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Nestos Chrisou ↓ / Kalamata → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 8% 1 8% 13% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

Nestos Chrisoupolis and Kalamata expected goals

Nestos Chrisoupolis 1.38
Kalamata 1.35

Total expected goals: 2.73

Nestos Chrisoupolis and Kalamata attack and defence ratings

Nestos Chrisoupolis

Attack 0.74 -26%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Kalamata

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 1.26 +26%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Nestos Chrisoupolis vs Kalamata: result vs prediction

Nestos Chrisoupolis 0 – 2 Kalamata

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Greek Cup - 4 fixtures

Greece Cup

Before and after this match

Nestos Chrisoupolis vs Kalamata markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Kalamata 52.3% 1.91 -5.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 51.4% 1.94 — —
Both teams to score Yes 56.7% 1.76 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 78.6% 1.27 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 64.8% 1.54 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Nestos Chrisoupolis21.4%
Draw26.3%
Kalamata52.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551.4%
Under 2.548.6%
Both teams to scoreYes56.7%
No43.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)47.7%
12 (either side)73.7%
X2 (draw or away)78.6%
Handicap -1Kalamata win16.5%
Push (exactly one goal)18.7%
Loss64.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.4%
2-18.4%
1-28.2%

Nestos Chrisoupolis vs Kalamata stats

Nestos Chrisoupolis and Kalamata recent form

newest first
Nestos Chrisoupolis WDLLLL
Kalamata LWWLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Nestos Chrisoupolis vs Kalamata head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Nestos Chrisoupolis vs Kalamata odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 16.3%, draw 25.7%, away 58.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 6.56 3.50 1.49
Bet365 6.50 3.50 1.60
BetVictor 5.50 3.70 1.60
Betano 5.90 3.55 1.60
Betfair 5.50 3.75 1.53
Dafabet 5.60 3.85 1.64
Marathonbet 6.20 3.50 1.48
Pinnacle 5.43 3.59 1.56
William Hill 5.50 3.50 1.57

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 5.60 ▼ -0.78
X 3.55 ▲ +0.05
2 1.57 ▲ +0.09

13 snapshots recorded, from .