Olympiakos Piraeus
vs
Kalamata
Garuda Lions Prediction: Olympiakos Piraeus
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 0.74.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Olympiakos Piraeus is the favourite, not a value bet.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata
| Probability | Olympiakos Piraeus | Draw | Kalamata |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.1% | 27.6% | 16.3% |
| Market | 83.9% | 11.6% | 4.4% |
| Final | 77.0% | 15.6% | 7.4% |
| Edge | -7.0% | +4.0% | +3.0% |
Why Olympiakos Piraeus
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.15, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.5% per unit staked (our 77.0% × 1.15 − 1).
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata match preview
Olympiakos Piraeus enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 76%, reflecting their recent form of five wins and one loss. The expected goals for Olympiakos is 1.60, indicating a solid attacking presence, while Kalamata's expected goals stand at 0.78, suggesting they may struggle to find the net. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a probability of 14%.
Kalamata has shown resilience in their recent performances, with three wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches. However, their overall winning probability is only 8%, which highlights the challenge they face against a dominant Olympiakos side. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 43%, and both teams to score is at 44%, indicating a potential for a tightly contested match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Olympiakos Piraeus and Kalamata expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.30
Olympiakos Piraeus and Kalamata attack and defence ratings
Olympiakos Piraeus
Kalamata
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 77.0% | 1.30 | -7.0% | 1.15 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.6% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.9% | 2.28 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 77.0% |
| Draw | 15.6% | |
| Kalamata | 7.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.4% |
| No | 57.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 23.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Olympiakos Piraeus win | 30.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.5% | |
| Loss | 43.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.5% |
| 1-1 | 12.7% | |
| 2-0 | 12.3% |
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata stats
Olympiakos Piraeus and Kalamata recent form
| Olympiakos Piraeus |
WWWWWW |
| Kalamata |
WWLDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Olympiakos Piraeus and Kalamata season so far
Olympiakos Piraeus record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Kalamata record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 84.0%, draw 11.6%, away 4.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.10 | 8.00 | 23.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.11 | 8.00 | 23.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.10 | 7.50 | 19.00 |
| Betano | 1.15 | 7.40 | 23.00 |
| Betfair | 1.11 | 8.50 | 21.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.13 | 8.60 | 20.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.10 | 8.00 | 23.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.10 | 9.42 | 20.76 |
| SBO | 1.10 | 6.66 | 12.04 |
| William Hill | 1.11 | 8.00 | 21.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .