AEK Athens FC
vs
Panetolikos
Garuda Lions Prediction: AEK Athens FC
2 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.95 vs 0.95.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — AEK Athens FC is the favourite, not a value bet.
AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos
| Probability | AEK Athens FC | Draw | Panetolikos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 77.2% | 14.3% | 8.5% |
| Market | 83.7% | 11.3% | 5.0% |
| Final | 82.1% | 12.1% | 5.9% |
| Edge | -1.6% | +0.7% | +0.9% |
Why AEK Athens FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.95 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.15, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.6% per unit staked (our 82.1% × 1.15 − 1).
AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos match preview
AEK Athens FC is heavily favored to win against Panetolikos, with a probability of 80% according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which has a 9% chance of occurring. AEK Athens has shown strong recent form, with two wins in their last three matches, while Panetolikos has struggled, losing four of their last six games.
In terms of expected goals, AEK Athens is projected to score 2.95, while Panetolikos is expected to net just 0.95. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, and a 59% probability that both teams will score. Historically, AEK Athens has dominated their recent encounters with Panetolikos, winning all three of their last meetings.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AEK Athens FC and Panetolikos expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.90
AEK Athens FC and Panetolikos attack and defence ratings
AEK Athens FC
Panetolikos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AEK Athens FC | 82.1% | 1.22 | -1.6% | 1.15 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 94.1% | 1.06 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | AEK Athens FC win | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AEK Athens FC | 82.1% |
| Draw | 12.1% | |
| Panetolikos | 5.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.6% |
| No | 41.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 94.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 87.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 17.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | AEK Athens FC win | 58.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 22.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 8.8% |
| 3-0 | 8.7% | |
| 2-1 | 8.4% |
AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos stats
AEK Athens FC and Panetolikos recent form
| AEK Athens FC |
LLWWWD |
| Panetolikos |
LLLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AEK Athens FC and Panetolikos season so far
AEK Athens FC record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Panetolikos record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | Panetolikos | AEK Athens FC | Super League 1 | 0-5 |
| 2025-11-02 | AEK Athens FC | Panetolikos | Super League 1 | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-24 | AEK Athens FC | Panetolikos | Greece Cup | 2-1 |
| 2025-01-25 | AEK Athens FC | Panetolikos | Super League 1 | 1-0 |
| 2024-10-05 | Panetolikos | AEK Athens FC | Super League 1 | 1-0 |
| 2023-12-18 | Panetolikos | AEK Athens FC | Super League 1 | 2-2 |
| 2023-10-08 | AEK Athens FC | Panetolikos | Super League 1 | 3-0 |
| 2023-01-15 | AEK Athens FC | Panetolikos | Super League 1 | 4-1 |
| 2022-09-17 | Panetolikos | AEK Athens FC | Super League 1 | 0-2 |
| 2022-01-16 | AEK Athens FC | Panetolikos | Super League 1 | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 83.6%, draw 11.4%, away 5.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.11 | 8.20 | 18.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.12 | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.10 | 7.50 | 18.00 |
| Betano | 1.15 | 7.70 | 19.50 |
| Betfair | 1.11 | 8.50 | 20.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.14 | 8.80 | 17.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.11 | 8.20 | 18.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.11 | 9.32 | 18.11 |
| SBO | 1.12 | 6.57 | 10.60 |
| William Hill | 1.12 | 8.00 | 19.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
25 snapshots recorded, from .