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Greece Cup · Full time ·Greek Cup - 4

PAOK vs AEK Athens FC

3 – 1 Full time

8′S. Banza
48′L. Majer
50′L. Jovic
63′S. BanzaS. Shoretire
63′D. ChatsidisA. Mythou
69′B. SantamariaC. Zafeiris
70′S. Shoretire
76′O. Zubkov
77′L. MajerJoao Mario
77′O. ZubkovD. Kutesa
79′C. Ndiaye
84′C. NdiayeG. Taylor
84′A. ZivkovicM. Camara
85′G. Taylor
88′D. Giannoulis
89′A. Lisci
90′Zini
90′A. Brignoli

Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki

PAOK 33%
Draw 28%
AEK Athens FC 39%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

PAOK vs AEK Athens FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: PAOK vs AEK Athens FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPAOKDrawAEK Athens FC
Model24.1%22.0%53.9%
Market35.8%29.5%34.7%
Final32.9%27.7%39.5%
Edge-2.9%-1.9%+4.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why AEK Athens FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 1.47.
  • The market prices AEK Athens FC below our published probability: +4.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

PAOK ↓ / AEK Athens FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 6% 5% 1 9% 9% 7% 6% 2 6% 7% 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 71%
No goals 3%

PAOK and AEK Athens FC expected goals

PAOK 1.47
AEK Athens FC 2.20

Total expected goals: 3.67

PAOK and AEK Athens FC attack and defence ratings

PAOK

Attack 1.12 +12%
Defence 0.99 -1%

AEK Athens FC

Attack 1.77 +77%
Defence 0.90 -10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

PAOK vs AEK Athens FC: result vs prediction

PAOK 3 – 1 AEK Athens FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Greek Cup - 4 fixtures

Greece Cup

Before and after this match

PAOK vs AEK Athens FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 AEK Athens FC 39.5% 2.53 +4.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 70.9% 1.41 — —
Both teams to score Yes 69.1% 1.45 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.3% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.5% 2.15 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2PAOK32.9%
Draw27.7%
AEK Athens FC39.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570.9%
Under 2.529.1%
Both teams to scoreYes69.1%
No30.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)60.5%
12 (either side)72.3%
X2 (draw or away)67.1%
Handicap -1AEK Athens FC win33.2%
Push (exactly one goal)20.3%
Loss46.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-29.1%
1-19.1%
1-36.7%

PAOK vs AEK Athens FC stats

PAOK and AEK Athens FC recent form

newest first
PAOK LWLWWW
AEK Athens FC WLLWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

PAOK vs AEK Athens FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3PAOK wins 4Draws 3AEK Athens FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-13PAOKAEK Athens FCSuper League 11-1
2026-04-19AEK Athens FCPAOKSuper League 13-0
2026-02-15PAOKAEK Athens FCSuper League 10-0
2025-10-19AEK Athens FCPAOKSuper League 10-2
2025-05-11PAOKAEK Athens FCSuper League 11-0
2025-03-30AEK Athens FCPAOKSuper League 12-3
2025-02-02PAOKAEK Athens FCSuper League 11-2
2025-01-09PAOKAEK Athens FCCup1-1
2024-12-18AEK Athens FCPAOKCup1-0
2024-10-20AEK Athens FCPAOKSuper League 11-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

PAOK vs AEK Athens FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 35.8%, draw 29.5%, away 34.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.50 2.90 2.65
Bet365 2.62 3.25 2.62
BetVictor 2.55 3.13 2.70
Betano 2.65 3.20 2.77
Betfair 2.50 3.25 2.55
Dafabet 2.80 3.20 2.60
Marathonbet 2.51 2.93 2.61
Pinnacle 2.54 3.02 2.73
SBO 2.54 2.93 2.41
William Hill 2.50 2.90 2.62

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.54 ▲ +0.32
X 3.08 ▲ +0.14
2 2.62 ▼ -0.46

14 snapshots recorded, from .