Panathinaikos
vs
AEK Athens FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Panathinaikos
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.25.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC
| Probability | Panathinaikos | Draw | AEK Athens FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.9% | 21.5% | 19.6% |
| Market | 39.1% | 27.8% | 33.1% |
| Final | 44.0% | 26.2% | 29.7% |
| Edge | +4.9% | -1.6% | -3.4% |
Why Panathinaikos
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.25.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices Panathinaikos below our published probability: +4.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.9% per unit staked (our 44.0% × 2.45 − 1).
Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC match preview
Panathinaikos will face AEK Athens FC in a Super League 1 clash on November 1, 2026. According to our model, Panathinaikos has a 44% probability of winning, while AEK Athens FC stands at 30%, with a 26% chance of a draw. The expected goals for Panathinaikos is 2.24, compared to AEK's 1.25, indicating a potentially high-scoring match. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Panathinaikos, with a 10% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, Panathinaikos has recorded four wins, one loss, and one win in their last six matches, while AEK Athens FC has achieved four wins and two losses in the same period. Historically, in their last four encounters, Panathinaikos has not secured a win, with AEK Athens FC winning three times and one match ending in a draw. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Panathinaikos and AEK Athens FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.48
Panathinaikos and AEK Athens FC attack and defence ratings
Panathinaikos
AEK Athens FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Panathinaikos | 44.0% | 2.27 | +4.9% | 2.45 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.8% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.1% | 2.43 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Panathinaikos | 44.0% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| AEK Athens FC | 29.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.5% |
| No | 35.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Panathinaikos win | 37.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 41.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.6% |
| 1-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 7.7% |
Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC stats
Panathinaikos and AEK Athens FC recent form
| Panathinaikos |
WWWWLW |
| AEK Athens FC |
WLLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Panathinaikos and AEK Athens FC season so far
Panathinaikos record
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
AEK Athens FC record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | AEK Athens FC | Panathinaikos | Super League 1 | 2-1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Panathinaikos | AEK Athens FC | Super League 1 | 0-0 |
| 2026-01-18 | AEK Athens FC | Panathinaikos | Super League 1 | 4-0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Panathinaikos | AEK Athens FC | Super League 1 | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.1%, draw 27.8%, away 33.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.40 | 3.35 | 2.81 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.37 | 3.35 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.88 |
| Marathonbet | 2.38 | 3.35 | 2.80 |
| Pinnacle | 2.38 | 3.25 | 3.05 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
17 snapshots recorded, from .