PAOK
vs
Asteras Tripolis
Garuda Lions Prediction: PAOK
2 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.00.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — PAOK is the favourite, not a value bet.
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis overview
Garuda Lions analysis: PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis
| Probability | PAOK | Draw | Asteras Tripolis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.1% | 24.3% | 18.6% |
| Market | 72.6% | 17.5% | 9.9% |
| Final | 68.7% | 19.2% | 12.0% |
| Edge | -3.9% | +1.7% | +2.2% |
Why PAOK
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.31, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.9% per unit staked (our 68.7% × 1.31 − 1).
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis match preview
PAOK enters this matchup with a strong probability of winning at 69%, while Asteras Tripolis has a 12% chance of securing a victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-0 in favor of PAOK, with an expected goals tally of 1.89 for PAOK compared to 1.00 for Asteras Tripolis. Both teams have a 55% likelihood of scoring, suggesting a potentially competitive encounter.
Recent form shows PAOK with three wins in their last five matches, while Asteras Tripolis has managed two wins in their last five, alongside three draws. In their last two head-to-head encounters, PAOK has secured one win and one draw against Asteras Tripolis, who has yet to win in this fixture. The confidence grade for this prediction stands at C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
PAOK and Asteras Tripolis expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.89
PAOK and Asteras Tripolis attack and defence ratings
PAOK
Asteras Tripolis
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PAOK | 68.7% | 1.45 | -3.9% | 1.31 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.1% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.0% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.9% | 2.33 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PAOK | 68.7% |
| Draw | 19.2% | |
| Asteras Tripolis | 12.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% |
| No | 45.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 31.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | PAOK win | 34.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 42.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-0 | 9.9% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis stats
PAOK and Asteras Tripolis recent form
| PAOK |
LWLWWW |
| Asteras Tripolis |
DLWDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
PAOK and Asteras Tripolis season so far
PAOK record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Asteras Tripolis record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | PAOK | Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Asteras Tripolis | PAOK | Super League 1 | 3-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 72.6%, draw 17.5%, away 9.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.28 | 5.35 | 9.80 |
| Bet365 | 1.28 | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| Betano | 1.31 | 5.40 | 9.50 |
| Betfair | 1.29 | 5.00 | 9.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.27 | 5.35 | 9.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.29 | 5.67 | 8.97 |
| William Hill | 1.29 | 5.00 | 9.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .