Olympiakos Piraeus
vs
PAOK
Garuda Lions Prediction: Olympiakos Piraeus
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 0.72.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Olympiakos Piraeus is the favourite, not a value bet.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK
| Probability | Olympiakos Piraeus | Draw | PAOK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.1% | 22.8% | 12.1% |
| Market | 59.7% | 22.9% | 17.4% |
| Final | 61.1% | 22.8% | 16.1% |
| Edge | +1.3% | -0.0% | -1.3% |
Why Olympiakos Piraeus
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 0.72.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.3% per unit staked (our 61.1% × 1.60 − 1).
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK match preview
Olympiakos Piraeus enters this match against PAOK with a strong recent form, having won their last six matches. The model forecasts a 60% probability of an Olympiakos victory, with a likely scoreline of 2-0 at 13%. Expected goals suggest Olympiakos will score approximately 2.13, while PAOK is projected to net around 0.77.
In contrast, PAOK's recent form shows a mix of results, with three wins and three losses in their last six games. Historically, PAOK has the upper hand in their last five encounters, winning three and drawing two against Olympiakos. The model indicates a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% probability that both teams will score, reflecting a competitive matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.66
Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK attack and defence ratings
Olympiakos Piraeus
PAOK
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 61.1% | 1.64 | +1.3% | 1.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.9% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Olympiakos Piraeus win | 40.6% | 2.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 61.1% |
| Draw | 22.8% | |
| PAOK | 16.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.0% |
| No | 55.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Olympiakos Piraeus win | 40.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.5% | |
| Loss | 34.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.1% |
| 1-0 | 12.6% | |
| 1-1 | 10.8% |
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK stats
Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK recent form
| Olympiakos Piraeus |
DWWWWW |
| PAOK |
WWLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK season so far
Olympiakos Piraeus record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 8 matches.
PAOK record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Olympiakos Piraeus | PAOK | Super League 1 | 1-1 |
| 2026-05-03 | PAOK | Olympiakos Piraeus | Super League 1 | 3-1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Olympiakos Piraeus | PAOK | Super League 1 | 0-0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Olympiakos Piraeus | PAOK | Greece Cup | 0-2 |
| 2025-10-05 | PAOK | Olympiakos Piraeus | Super League 1 | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.7%, draw 22.9%, away 17.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.57 | 4.10 | 5.31 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.55 | 3.90 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.60 | 4.10 | 5.50 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.60 | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.55 | 4.10 | 5.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.58 | 4.05 | 5.52 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .