AEK Athens FC
vs
Levadiakos
Garuda Lions Prediction: AEK Athens FC
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.04.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — AEK Athens FC is the favourite, not a value bet.
AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos
| Probability | AEK Athens FC | Draw | Levadiakos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.3% | 23.4% | 18.3% |
| Market | 78.9% | 14.4% | 6.7% |
| Final | 73.8% | 16.7% | 9.6% |
| Edge | -5.2% | +2.2% | +2.9% |
Why AEK Athens FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.04.
Best available price on the pick: 1.21, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.8% per unit staked (our 73.8% × 1.21 − 1).
AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos match preview
AEK Athens FC is favored to win against Levadiakos, with a 74% probability according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring with a 10% likelihood. AEK's expected goals stand at 1.98, while Levadiakos is projected at 1.04. The model suggests a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% probability that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, AEK Athens FC has struggled, recording three losses in their last six matches, while Levadiakos has a mixed record with one win, two draws, and three losses in the same period. Historically, AEK has dominated their encounters, winning both of the last two head-to-head matches against Levadiakos. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.02
AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos attack and defence ratings
AEK Athens FC
Levadiakos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AEK Athens FC | 73.8% | 1.36 | -5.2% | 1.21 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.4% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.7% | 2.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AEK Athens FC | 73.8% |
| Draw | 16.7% | |
| Levadiakos | 9.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.7% |
| No | 43.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 26.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | AEK Athens FC win | 35.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 41.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.6% |
AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos stats
AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos recent form
| AEK Athens FC |
LLLWLL |
| Levadiakos |
WDDLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos season so far
AEK Athens FC record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 4.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Levadiakos record
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 8 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | AEK Athens FC | Levadiakos | Super League 1 | 4-0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Levadiakos | AEK Athens FC | Super League 1 | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 78.9%, draw 14.4%, away 6.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.19 | 6.45 | 14.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.20 | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.17 | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| Betano | 1.21 | 6.30 | 15.50 |
| Betfair | 1.18 | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.20 | 6.80 | 14.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.18 | 6.45 | 14.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.18 | 6.92 | 13.93 |
| William Hill | 1.18 | 6.00 | 13.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
28 snapshots recorded, from .