Aris Thessalonikis
vs
Panetolikos
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aris Thessalonikis
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 0.88.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Aris Thessalonikis is the favourite, not a value bet.
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos
| Probability | Aris Thessalonikis | Draw | Panetolikos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.1% | 20.3% | 12.6% |
| Market | 66.8% | 20.8% | 12.5% |
| Final | 66.9% | 20.7% | 12.5% |
| Edge | +0.1% | -0.1% | +0.0% |
Why Aris Thessalonikis
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 0.88.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.44, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.7% per unit staked (our 66.9% × 1.44 − 1).
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos match preview
Aris Thessalonikis holds a strong probability of 67% to win against Panetolikos, who has a 12% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-0, with an expected goals tally of 2.23 for Aris Thessalonikis compared to 0.88 for Panetolikos. The model also suggests a 60% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Aris Thessalonikis has recorded two losses followed by three wins and a draw, while Panetolikos is struggling with six consecutive losses. Historically, in their last ten encounters, Aris Thessalonikis has won seven times, drawn once, and lost twice to Panetolikos. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.11
Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos attack and defence ratings
Aris Thessalonikis
Panetolikos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aris Thessalonikis | 66.9% | 1.50 | +0.1% | 1.44 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.2% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.5% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Aris Thessalonikis win | 44.6% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aris Thessalonikis | 66.9% |
| Draw | 20.7% | |
| Panetolikos | 12.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.2% |
| No | 46.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aris Thessalonikis win | 44.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 32.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 1-1 | 9.6% |
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos stats
Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos recent form
| Aris Thessalonikis |
LLWWWD |
| Panetolikos |
LLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos season so far
Aris Thessalonikis record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Panetolikos record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Panetolikos | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | 0-1 |
| 2026-01-06 | Aris Thessalonikis | Panetolikos | Greece Cup | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-17 | Panetolikos | Aris Thessalonikis | Greece Cup | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Aris Thessalonikis | Panetolikos | Super League 1 | 0-2 |
| 2025-02-23 | Aris Thessalonikis | Panetolikos | Super League 1 | 2-1 |
| 2024-11-09 | Panetolikos | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | 2-1 |
| 2024-03-06 | Aris Thessalonikis | Panetolikos | Cup | 0-0 |
| 2024-02-13 | Panetolikos | Aris Thessalonikis | Cup | 0-1 |
| 2024-01-14 | Panetolikos | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | 0-4 |
| 2023-09-24 | Aris Thessalonikis | Panetolikos | Super League 1 | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 66.8%, draw 20.8%, away 12.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.41 | 4.40 | 7.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 4.50 | 8.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.50 | 8.00 |
| Betano | 1.44 | 4.60 | 7.50 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 4.50 | 7.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.41 | 4.70 | 7.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.40 | 4.40 | 7.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.40 | 4.89 | 8.04 |
| SBO | 1.36 | 4.16 | 6.66 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 4.40 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
30 snapshots recorded, from .