Asteras Tripolis
vs
Kalamata
Garuda Lions Prediction: Asteras Tripolis
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Asteras Tripolis is the favourite, not a value bet.
Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata
| Probability | Asteras Tripolis | Draw | Kalamata |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.1% | 26.5% | 40.4% |
| Market | 48.2% | 27.1% | 24.7% |
| Final | 44.4% | 26.9% | 28.7% |
| Edge | -3.8% | -0.1% | +3.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.2% per unit staked (our 44.4% × 2.00 − 1).
Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata match preview
Asteras Tripolis faces Kalamata in an intriguing Super League 1 matchup. According to our model, Asteras Tripolis has a 44% probability of winning, while Kalamata stands at 29%, with a 27% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Asteras Tripolis, occurring with an 8% likelihood. The expected goals for Asteras Tripolis is 1.42, compared to 1.57 for Kalamata.
In terms of recent form, Asteras Tripolis has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Kalamata has three wins, one loss, and one draw in the same period. Our model indicates a 57% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Asteras Tripolis and Kalamata expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
Asteras Tripolis and Kalamata attack and defence ratings
Asteras Tripolis
Kalamata
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Asteras Tripolis | 44.4% | 2.25 | -3.8% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.9% | 1.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Asteras Tripolis | 44.4% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Kalamata | 28.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.1% |
| No | 38.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Asteras Tripolis win | 15.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.4% | |
| Loss | 66.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | |
| 2-1 | 7.9% |
Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata stats
Asteras Tripolis and Kalamata recent form
| Asteras Tripolis |
LLDLWD |
| Kalamata |
DWLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Asteras Tripolis and Kalamata season so far
Asteras Tripolis record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Kalamata record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.2%, draw 27.1%, away 24.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.94 | 3.45 | 3.78 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.25 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.90 | 3.30 | 3.75 |
| Betano | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.98 | 3.55 | 3.85 |
| Marathonbet | 1.92 | 3.45 | 3.78 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 3.55 | 3.95 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.30 | 3.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
30 snapshots recorded, from .