Garuda Lions
Today
Greece Cup · Full time ·Greek Cup - 4

Larisa vs OFI

1 – 0 Full time

46′G. KanellopoulosN. Athanasiou
46′I. TheodosoulakisT. Nuss
50′T. Nuss
52′N. Nitsos
58′P. Kenourgiakis
60′C. Lelekas
61′L. AndradaG. Konstantakopoulos
61′K. PapageorgiouA. Tsingaras
61′A. ChatzigiovanisT. Fountas
67′G. KaragiannidisS. Risvanis
67′N. NitsosA. Dabizas
74′B. GonzalezA. Androutsos
78′G. AgapakisE. Sakic
78′P. KenourgiakisA. Cantalapiedra
90′G. Konstantakopoulos
90′N. Melissas

AEL FC Arena, Larissa

Larisa 36%
Draw 28%
OFI 36%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Larisa vs OFI overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Larisa vs OFI

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLarisaDrawOFI
Model45.5%28.6%25.9%
Market32.7%28.1%39.2%
Final35.9%28.2%35.9%
Edge+3.2%+0.1%-3.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Larisa

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 1.05.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Larisa below our published probability: +3.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Larisa ↓ / OFI → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 7% 1 11% 14% 2 9% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 73%
3+ goals 46%
No goals 9%

Larisa and OFI expected goals

Larisa 1.47
OFI 1.05

Total expected goals: 2.52

Larisa and OFI attack and defence ratings

Larisa

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 0.77 -23%

OFI

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Larisa vs OFI: result vs prediction

Larisa 1 – 0 OFI

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Greek Cup - 4 fixtures

Greece Cup

Before and after this match

Larisa vs OFI markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Larisa 35.9% 2.78 +3.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 53.8% 1.86 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.4% 1.95 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.8% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.3% 1.84 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Larisa35.9%
Draw28.2%
OFI35.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546.2%
Under 2.553.8%
Both teams to scoreYes51.4%
No48.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)64.1%
12 (either side)71.8%
X2 (draw or away)64.1%
Handicap -1Larisa win23.3%
Push (exactly one goal)22.4%
Loss54.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.7%
1-010.5%
0-09.3%

Larisa vs OFI stats

Larisa and OFI recent form

newest first
Larisa DDLDWW
OFI WLLLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Larisa vs OFI head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

2Larisa wins 3Draws 4OFI wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-28OFILarisaSuper League 13-0
2025-11-24LarisaOFISuper League 11-2
2021-04-24LarisaOFISuper League 10-1
2021-03-06OFILarisaSuper League 12-3
2020-12-12LarisaOFISuper League 10-1
2020-02-01OFILarisaSuper League 10-0
2019-11-03LarisaOFISuper League 13-2
2019-03-03OFILarisaSuper League 10-0
2018-10-27LarisaOFISuper League 10-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Larisa vs OFI odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.7%, draw 28.1%, away 39.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.90 3.10 2.27
Bet365 3.00 3.30 2.35
BetVictor 2.80 3.40 2.30
Betano 2.77 3.35 2.42
Betfair 2.63 3.30 2.38
Dafabet 2.65 3.45 2.60
Marathonbet 2.97 3.08 2.17
Pinnacle 2.74 3.10 2.36
SBO 2.71 3.04 2.21
William Hill 2.80 3.20 2.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.79 ▼ -2.08
X 3.25 ▼ -0.05
2 2.33 ▲ +0.68

14 snapshots recorded, from .