Aris Thessalonikis
vs
Atromitos
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aris Thessalonikis
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.11.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Aris Thessalonikis is the favourite, not a value bet.
Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos
| Probability | Aris Thessalonikis | Draw | Atromitos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.4% | 25.8% | 22.9% |
| Market | 56.5% | 25.0% | 18.6% |
| Final | 55.2% | 25.2% | 19.6% |
| Edge | -1.3% | +0.2% | +1.1% |
Why Aris Thessalonikis
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.68, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.3% per unit staked (our 55.2% × 1.68 − 1).
Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos match preview
Aris Thessalonikis enters this match with a 55% probability of winning, reflecting their recent form of two wins, one draw, and two losses in the last five matches. Their expected goals stand at 1.75, suggesting a strong offensive capability. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with a 10% probability, indicating a competitive match.
Atromitos, on the other hand, has struggled recently, recording three losses and two draws in their last five games. They have an expected goals figure of 1.11, which highlights their challenges in scoring. The probabilities for both teams to score are at 56%, and there is a 54% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match, suggesting an expectation for an engaging encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.86
Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos attack and defence ratings
Aris Thessalonikis
Atromitos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aris Thessalonikis | 55.2% | 1.81 | -1.3% | 1.68 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.4% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.6% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aris Thessalonikis | 55.2% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Atromitos | 19.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.4% |
| No | 43.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aris Thessalonikis win | 29.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 48.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-0 | 8.9% |
Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos stats
Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos recent form
| Aris Thessalonikis |
WWDWLD |
| Atromitos |
LLLDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos season so far
Aris Thessalonikis record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atromitos record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Aris Thessalonikis | Atromitos | Super League 1 | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Atromitos | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.5%, draw 24.9%, away 18.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.66 | 3.74 | 5.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.75 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.68 | 3.85 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.64 | 3.74 | 5.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.66 | 3.78 | 5.12 |
| SBO | 1.56 | 3.47 | 4.62 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .