Asteras Tripolis
vs
Atromitos
Garuda Lions Prediction: Asteras Tripolis
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos
| Probability | Asteras Tripolis | Draw | Atromitos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.6% | 28.4% | 27.0% |
| Market | 39.5% | 29.8% | 30.7% |
| Final | 40.8% | 29.5% | 29.8% |
| Edge | +5.1% | -1.5% | -3.7% |
Why Asteras Tripolis
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Asteras Tripolis below the model: +5.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos match preview
Asteras Tripolis faces Atromitos in a Super League 1 match on October 10, 2026. The model assigns Asteras Tripolis a 41% chance of winning, while both a draw and an Atromitos victory are estimated at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Asteras Tripolis, with an expected goals tally of 1.48 for Asteras and 1.11 for Atromitos.
In terms of recent form, Asteras Tripolis has recorded three draws and two wins in their last five matches, while Atromitos has struggled with two losses and one draw in their last five outings. The head-to-head record shows Asteras Tripolis winning twice, with Atromitos also securing two victories in their last four encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.59
Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos attack and defence ratings
Asteras Tripolis
Atromitos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Asteras Tripolis | 40.8% | 2.45 | +5.1% | 2.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.4% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Asteras Tripolis | 40.8% |
| Draw | 29.5% | |
| Atromitos | 29.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.0% |
| No | 47.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Asteras Tripolis win | 22.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 55.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | 9.9% | |
| 2-1 | 9.1% |
Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos stats
Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos recent form
| Asteras Tripolis |
DWDDWL |
| Atromitos |
LLDDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Asteras Tripolis and Atromitos season so far
Asteras Tripolis record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
Atromitos record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Asteras Tripolis | Atromitos | Super League 1 | 4-2 |
| 2026-04-26 | Atromitos | Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | 2-1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Asteras Tripolis | Atromitos | Super League 1 | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-30 | Atromitos | Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | 0-1 |
| 2025-07-19 | Atromitos | Asteras Tripolis | Friendlies Clubs | 0-0 |
| 2025-05-03 | Asteras Tripolis | Atromitos | Super League 1 | 1-4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Atromitos | Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | 0-1 |
| 2025-01-05 | Atromitos | Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | 0-1 |
| 2024-09-14 | Asteras Tripolis | Atromitos | Super League 1 | 1-2 |
| 2024-05-11 | Atromitos | Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.5%, draw 29.8%, away 30.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.37 | 3.08 | 3.10 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.37 | 3.25 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.36 | 3.25 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.35 | 3.08 | 3.08 |
| Pinnacle | 2.36 | 3.16 | 3.18 |
| SBO | 2.21 | 2.90 | 2.83 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 2.90 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
42 snapshots recorded, from .