PAOK
vs
Kalamata
Garuda Lions Prediction: PAOK
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
PAOK vs Kalamata overview
Garuda Lions analysis: PAOK vs Kalamata
| Probability | PAOK | Draw | Kalamata |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.6% | 26.7% | 22.6% |
| Market | 78.7% | 13.6% | 7.7% |
| Final | 71.7% | 16.9% | 11.5% |
| Edge | -28.1% | +13.2% | +14.9% |
Why PAOK
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.22, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
PAOK vs Kalamata match preview
PAOK enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 69%, while Kalamata has a significantly lower chance of 11%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 10% likelihood. Expected goals suggest PAOK will generate around 1.66, compared to Kalamata's 1.04, indicating a potential edge in offensive output.
In terms of recent form, PAOK has shown resilience with three wins in their last five matches, alongside one draw and one loss. Conversely, Kalamata's form has been less favorable, with one win and four draws in their last six games, including two consecutive losses. The model indicates a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance for both teams to score, reflecting a competitive matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
PAOK and Kalamata expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.70
PAOK and Kalamata attack and defence ratings
PAOK
Kalamata
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
PAOK vs Kalamata markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PAOK | 71.7% | 1.40 | -28.1% | 1.22 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.5% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.4% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PAOK | 71.7% |
| Draw | 16.9% | |
| Kalamata | 11.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.5% |
| No | 46.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 28.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | PAOK win | 27.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 49.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 1-0 | 10.0% | |
| 2-1 | 9.6% |
PAOK vs Kalamata stats
PAOK vs Kalamata head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
PAOK vs Kalamata odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 78.7%, draw 13.6%, away 7.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.18 | 6.85 | 12.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.20 | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| Betano | 1.22 | 6.20 | 15.00 |
| Betfair | 1.17 | 6.50 | 14.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.21 | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.17 | 6.85 | 13.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.18 | 7.29 | 11.64 |
| SBO | 1.18 | 5.51 | 8.87 |
| William Hill | 1.18 | 6.50 | 12.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
42 snapshots recorded, from .