Aktobe
vs
Kairat Almaty
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kairat Almaty
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Kairat Almaty is the favourite, not a value bet.
Aktobe vs Kairat Almaty overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aktobe vs Kairat Almaty
| Probability | Aktobe | Draw | Kairat Almaty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.0% | 23.2% | 27.8% |
| Market | 26.1% | 26.3% | 47.6% |
| Final | 31.8% | 25.5% | 42.6% |
| Edge | +5.7% | -0.8% | -4.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.96, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -16.4% per unit staked (our 42.6% × 1.96 − 1).
Aktobe vs Kairat Almaty match preview
Aktobe faces Kairat Almaty in a Kazakhstan Premier League match, with probabilities indicating a competitive encounter. Aktobe has a 35% chance of winning, while Kairat Almaty holds a slight edge at 39%. The model suggests a likely scoreline of 1-2, with both teams expected to score, reflected in the 63% probability for both teams to find the net.
Recent form shows Aktobe with mixed results, recording two wins and a loss in their last five matches, while Kairat Almaty has seen three wins in their previous five outings. The expected goals are closely matched, with Aktobe at 1.51 and Kairat Almaty at 1.58, indicating a potentially high-scoring match, as evidenced by a 60% likelihood of over 2.5 goals.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aktobe and Kairat Almaty expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.55
Aktobe and Kairat Almaty attack and defence ratings
Aktobe
Kairat Almaty
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aktobe vs Kairat Almaty markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kairat Almaty | 42.6% | 2.35 | -4.9% | 1.96 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.7% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 72.2% | 1.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aktobe | 31.8% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| Kairat Almaty | 42.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.7% |
| No | 31.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kairat Almaty win | 13.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.6% | |
| Loss | 72.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 2-2 | 6.8% |
Aktobe vs Kairat Almaty stats
Aktobe and Kairat Almaty recent form
| Aktobe |
LWDWWL |
| Kairat Almaty |
LWDWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aktobe and Kairat Almaty season so far
Aktobe record
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kairat Almaty record
- They have won 18 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 10 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aktobe vs Kairat Almaty head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | Kairat Almaty | Aktobe | Kazakhstan Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Kairat Almaty | Aktobe | Kazakhstan Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-30 | Aktobe | Kairat Almaty | Kazakhstan Premier League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aktobe vs Kairat Almaty odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.1%, draw 26.3%, away 47.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.72 | 3.52 | 1.96 |
| Betano | 3.55 | 3.40 | 1.95 |
| Betfair | 3.50 | 3.50 | 1.91 |
| Dafabet | 3.40 | 3.50 | 1.92 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .