Zhetysu
vs
FK Tobol Kostanay
Garuda Lions Prediction: FK Tobol Kostanay
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.05.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Zhetysu vs FK Tobol Kostanay overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Zhetysu vs FK Tobol Kostanay
| Probability | Zhetysu | Draw | FK Tobol Kostanay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.5% | 25.0% | 54.5% |
| Market | 34.7% | 25.1% | 40.2% |
| Final | 31.2% | 25.1% | 43.7% |
| Edge | -3.6% | -0.0% | +3.6% |
Why FK Tobol Kostanay
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices FK Tobol Kostanay below our published probability: +3.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.39, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.5% per unit staked (our 43.7% × 2.39 − 1).
Zhetysu vs FK Tobol Kostanay match preview
Zhetysu faces FK Tobol Kostanay in the Kazakhstan Premier League, with the probabilities indicating a 31% chance for Zhetysu to win, a 25% chance for a draw, and a 44% chance for FK Tobol Kostanay to secure victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 1.05 for Zhetysu and 1.83 for FK Tobol Kostanay.
In terms of recent form, Zhetysu has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while FK Tobol Kostanay has achieved four wins and two losses in the same period. The head-to-head record shows FK Tobol Kostanay dominating with seven wins out of the last ten encounters, alongside one win for Zhetysu and two draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Zhetysu and FK Tobol Kostanay expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.88
Zhetysu and FK Tobol Kostanay attack and defence ratings
Zhetysu
FK Tobol Kostanay
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
Before and after this match
Zhetysu vs FK Tobol Kostanay markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 43.7% | 2.29 | +3.6% | 2.39 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.7% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.9% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.5% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zhetysu | 31.2% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| FK Tobol Kostanay | 43.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.7% |
| No | 44.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Tobol Kostanay win | 31.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 45.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.4% |
Zhetysu vs FK Tobol Kostanay stats
Zhetysu and FK Tobol Kostanay recent form
| Zhetysu |
WLLLWL |
| FK Tobol Kostanay |
WWLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Zhetysu and FK Tobol Kostanay season so far
Zhetysu record
- They have won 6 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FK Tobol Kostanay record
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Zhetysu vs FK Tobol Kostanay head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | FK Tobol Kostanay | Zhetysu | Kazakhstan Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-19 | Zhetysu | FK Tobol Kostanay | Kazakhstan Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2025-06-21 | FK Tobol Kostanay | Zhetysu | Kazakhstan Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-13 | FK Tobol Kostanay | Zhetysu | Cup | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-18 | Zhetysu | FK Tobol Kostanay | Premier League | 0-3 |
| 2024-05-04 | FK Tobol Kostanay | Zhetysu | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2023-09-24 | FK Tobol Kostanay | Zhetysu | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2023-04-02 | Zhetysu | FK Tobol Kostanay | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2021-06-19 | FK Tobol Kostanay | Zhetysu | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2021-04-10 | Zhetysu | FK Tobol Kostanay | Premier League | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Zhetysu vs FK Tobol Kostanay odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.7%, draw 25.1%, away 40.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.60 | 3.84 | 2.39 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.15 |
| Betano | 2.67 | 3.55 | 2.30 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.80 | 2.22 |
| Marathonbet | 2.47 | 3.66 | 2.27 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .