Atyrau
vs
Irtysh
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atyrau
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.93.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Atyrau vs Irtysh overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atyrau vs Irtysh
| Probability | Atyrau | Draw | Irtysh |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.4% | 29.4% | 23.2% |
| Market | 34.8% | 27.6% | 37.6% |
| Final | 37.9% | 28.1% | 34.0% |
| Edge | +3.2% | +0.4% | -3.6% |
Why Atyrau
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.93.
- The market prices Atyrau below our published probability: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.71, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.8% per unit staked (our 37.9% × 2.71 − 1).
Atyrau vs Irtysh match preview
Atyrau and Irtysh are set to clash in the Kazakhstan Premier League, with Atyrau holding a 47% probability of winning, while Irtysh sits at 23%. The model suggests a likely scoreline of 1-0 in favor of Atyrau, which aligns with their expected goals of 1.43 compared to Irtysh's 0.93. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Atyrau recording two wins in their last six matches and Irtysh winning two of their last six as well.
The probability of a draw stands at 29%, indicating a competitive matchup. Additionally, there is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% probability that both teams will score. Historically, in their last encounter, Atyrau and Irtysh have not registered any wins, with one match ending in a draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atyrau and Irtysh expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.36
Atyrau and Irtysh attack and defence ratings
Atyrau
Irtysh
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atyrau vs Irtysh markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atyrau | 37.9% | 2.64 | +3.2% | 2.71 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.8% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atyrau | 37.9% |
| Draw | 28.1% | |
| Irtysh | 34.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.2% |
| No | 52.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atyrau win | 23.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 52.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 12.3% | |
| 0-0 | 10.7% |
Atyrau vs Irtysh stats
Atyrau and Irtysh recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atyrau and Irtysh season so far
Atyrau record
- They have won 5 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 28 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Irtysh record
- They have won 6 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 28 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atyrau vs Irtysh head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | Irtysh | Atyrau | Kazakhstan Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2019-08-31 | Atyrau | Irtysh | Premier League | 0-3 |
| 2019-05-26 | Irtysh | Atyrau | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2019-03-15 | Atyrau | Irtysh | Premier League | 1-3 |
| 2018-09-30 | Irtysh | Atyrau | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2018-08-12 | Atyrau | Irtysh | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2018-03-11 | Irtysh | Atyrau | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2017-08-13 | Atyrau | Irtysh | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2017-05-20 | Irtysh | Atyrau | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2017-03-18 | Atyrau | Irtysh | Premier League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atyrau vs Irtysh odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.8%, draw 27.6%, away 37.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.71 | 3.44 | 2.48 |
| Betano | 2.65 | 3.25 | 2.45 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.25 | 2.43 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .