Altay
vs
Atyrau
Garuda Lions Prediction: Altay
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Altay vs Atyrau overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Altay vs Atyrau
| Probability | Altay | Draw | Atyrau |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.4% | 24.9% | 17.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 57.4% | 24.9% | 17.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Altay
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Altay vs Atyrau match preview
Altay will face Atyrau in the Kazakhstan Premier League on October 18, 2026. The model gives Altay a 57% chance of winning, while Atyrau has an 18% probability of securing victory, with a 25% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals suggest Altay will score around 1.82, compared to Atyrau's 0.92. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 in favor of Altay, occurring with an 11% probability.
In terms of recent form, Altay has recorded one win in their last six matches, while Atyrau has also struggled, managing one win in their last six outings. The two teams have met once previously, with Atyrau winning that encounter. Both teams have a 52% chance of seeing over 2.5 goals and also a 52% chance of both teams scoring.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Altay and Atyrau expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.74
Altay and Atyrau attack and defence ratings
Altay
Atyrau
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 23 fixtures
Before and after this match
Altay vs Atyrau markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Altay | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.3% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.6% | 2.35 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Altay | 57.4% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| Atyrau | 17.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.6% |
| No | 48.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Altay win | 33.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 42.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 2-0 | 10.6% | |
| 1-0 | 10.6% |
Altay vs Atyrau stats
Altay and Atyrau recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Altay and Atyrau season so far
Altay record
- They have won 5 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 25 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atyrau record
- They have won 4 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 25 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Altay vs Atyrau head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Atyrau | Altay | Kazakhstan Premier League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.