Kazakhstan Premier League
·
Full time
·Matchday 23
Okzhetpes
vs
Kyzyl-Zhar
1 – 0 Full time
| 46′ | T. ZhangylyshbayS. Umarov | ||
| 60′ | V. Vasiljev | ||
| 62′ | S. MukanovV. Sovpel | ||
| 62′ | Z. MukhametkhanovN. Buribaev | ||
| 63′ | A. AbikenE. Beugre | ||
| 72′ | S. Urosevic | ||
| 76′ | S. BahokenT. Zhienaliev | ||
| 76′ | N. GubarevA. Cheredinov | ||
| 76′ | B. AbdumannonovE. Nurgaliyev | ||
| 77′ | E. Nurgaliyev | ||
| 80′ | S. Umarov | ||
| 81′ | E. MakarenkoY. Pertsukh | ||
| 86′ | A. Sokolenko | ||
| 90′ | D. BorodinU. |
Okzhetpes
46%
Draw
27%
Kyzyl-Zhar
27%
Okzhetpes vs Kyzyl-Zhar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Okzhetpes vs Kyzyl-Zhar
| Probability | Okzhetpes | Draw | Kyzyl-Zhar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.8% | 23.2% | 21.1% |
| Market | 42.7% | 28.2% | 29.2% |
| Final | 45.9% | 26.9% | 27.1% |
| Edge | +3.3% | -1.3% | -2.0% |
Why Okzhetpes
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.20.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Okzhetpes below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
84%
3+ goals
63%
No goals
5%
Okzhetpes and Kyzyl-Zhar expected goals
Okzhetpes
2.04
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.20
Total expected goals: 3.24
Okzhetpes and Kyzyl-Zhar attack and defence ratings
Okzhetpes
Attack
1.22 +22%
Defence
1.20 +20%
Kyzyl-Zhar
Attack
0.87 -13%
Defence
1.14 +14%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Okzhetpes vs Kyzyl-Zhar: result vs prediction
Okzhetpes 1 – 0 Kyzyl-Zhar
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 23 fixtures
Before and after this match
Okzhetpes vs Kyzyl-Zhar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Okzhetpes | 45.9% | 2.18 | +3.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.2% | 2.26 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Okzhetpes | 45.9% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Kyzyl-Zhar | 27.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.8% |
| No | 38.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Okzhetpes win | 34.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 44.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.1% |
Okzhetpes vs Kyzyl-Zhar stats
Okzhetpes and Kyzyl-Zhar recent form
| Okzhetpes |
LWLWWW |
| Kyzyl-Zhar |
WDLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Okzhetpes and Kyzyl-Zhar going into this match
Okzhetpes record
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kyzyl-Zhar record
- They have won 7 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Okzhetpes vs Kyzyl-Zhar head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
6Okzhetpes wins
0Draws
3Kyzyl-Zhar wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Kyzyl-Zhar | Okzhetpes | Kazakhstan Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Kyzyl-Zhar | Okzhetpes | Kazakhstan Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2025-05-31 | Okzhetpes | Kyzyl-Zhar | Kazakhstan Premier League | 3-2 |
| 2023-10-01 | Kyzyl-Zhar | Okzhetpes | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2023-03-15 | Okzhetpes | Kyzyl-Zhar | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2020-10-17 | Okzhetpes | Kyzyl-Zhar | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2020-07-01 | Kyzyl-Zhar | Okzhetpes | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2014-10-04 | Kyzyl-Zhar | Okzhetpes | 1. Division | 0-1 |
| 2014-05-09 | Okzhetpes | Kyzyl-Zhar | 1. Division | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Okzhetpes vs Kyzyl-Zhar odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.0%, draw 27.4%, away 28.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.20 | 3.36 | 3.22 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 1.90 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.87 | 3.45 | 3.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.09 | 3.20 | 3.06 |
| Pinnacle | 2.12 | 3.21 | 3.11 |
| Unibet | 1.82 | 3.35 | 3.50 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.12 ▲ +0.20
X
3.21 ▼ -0.09
2
3.10 ▼ -0.45
17 snapshots recorded, from .