Okzhetpes
vs
Kyzyl-Zhar
Garuda Lions Prediction: Okzhetpes
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Okzhetpes vs Kyzyl-Zhar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Okzhetpes vs Kyzyl-Zhar
| Probability | Okzhetpes | Draw | Kyzyl-Zhar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.9% | 18.4% | 13.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 67.9% | 18.4% | 13.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Okzhetpes
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.56 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.94, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Okzhetpes vs Kyzyl-Zhar match preview
Okzhetpes enters the match against Kyzyl-Zhar with a strong probability of winning at 68%, while Kyzyl-Zhar stands at 14%. The expected goals suggest a dominant performance from Okzhetpes with 2.56 expected goals compared to Kyzyl-Zhar's 1.11. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Okzhetpes, with a 9% chance of occurring.
Recent form shows Okzhetpes has won four of their last six matches, while Kyzyl-Zhar has struggled, recording only two draws and four losses in their last six games. Additionally, there is a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals, and both teams are expected to score 63% of the time. In their last three encounters, Okzhetpes has won twice, while Kyzyl-Zhar has one victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Okzhetpes and Kyzyl-Zhar expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.67
Okzhetpes and Kyzyl-Zhar attack and defence ratings
Okzhetpes
Kyzyl-Zhar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 23 fixtures
Before and after this match
Okzhetpes vs Kyzyl-Zhar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Okzhetpes | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | 1.94 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.9% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.2% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Okzhetpes win | 47.2% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Okzhetpes | 67.9% |
| Draw | 18.4% | |
| Kyzyl-Zhar | 13.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.6% |
| No | 37.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Okzhetpes win | 47.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 32.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.3% |
| 2-0 | 8.3% | |
| 1-1 | 8.0% |
Okzhetpes vs Kyzyl-Zhar stats
Okzhetpes and Kyzyl-Zhar recent form
| Okzhetpes |
WLWWWL |
| Kyzyl-Zhar |
DLLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Okzhetpes and Kyzyl-Zhar season so far
Okzhetpes record
- They have won 12 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kyzyl-Zhar record
- They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 26 matches.
Okzhetpes vs Kyzyl-Zhar head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Kyzyl-Zhar | Okzhetpes | Kazakhstan Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Kyzyl-Zhar | Okzhetpes | Kazakhstan Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2025-05-31 | Okzhetpes | Kyzyl-Zhar | Kazakhstan Premier League | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Okzhetpes vs Kyzyl-Zhar odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.1%, draw 27.4%, away 25.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.94 | 3.11 | 4.42 |
| Dafabet | 1.92 | 3.30 | 3.55 |
| Unibet | 1.82 | 3.35 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .