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Kazakhstan Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 23

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Zhenys

4 – 2 Full time

6′P. Kpozo
12′S. Tursynbay
18′V. Lisakovich
33′A. Tagybergen
38′A. Filipovic
57′S. Tursynbay
59′Z. Zhumashev
68′S. TursynbayA. Saulet
68′R. IsaevElder Santana
69′Z. Tevzadze
70′Z. ZhumashevU. Milovanovic
72′S. Zharynbetov
75′B. MadelkhanM. Bystrov
75′AdilioY. Besengaliyev
77′N. Zhagorov
79′V. LisakovichD. Zhumat
90′L. Imnadze

Centralnyj Stadion, KostanayReferee: D. Sakhi

FK Tobol Kostanay 48%
Draw 27%
Zhenys 25%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Zhenys overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FK Tobol Kostanay vs Zhenys

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFK Tobol KostanayDrawZhenys
Model55.8%24.3%19.9%
Market44.9%28.4%26.7%
Final47.6%27.4%25.0%
Edge+2.7%-1.0%-1.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why FK Tobol Kostanay

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.06.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FK Tobol Kostanay below our published probability: +2.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FK Tobol Kosta ↓ / Zhenys → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 9% 11% 2 9% 10% 3 6% 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 81%
3+ goals 57%
No goals 6%

FK Tobol Kostanay and Zhenys expected goals

FK Tobol Kostanay 1.90
Zhenys 1.06

Total expected goals: 2.97

FK Tobol Kostanay and Zhenys attack and defence ratings

FK Tobol Kostanay

Attack 1.17 +17%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Zhenys

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 1.11 +11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Zhenys: result vs prediction

FK Tobol Kostanay 4 – 2 Zhenys

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 23 fixtures

Kazakhstan Premier League

Before and after this match

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Zhenys markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FK Tobol Kostanay 47.6% 2.10 +2.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 56.9% 1.76 — —
Both teams to score Yes 56.7% 1.76 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 75.0% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 44.1% 2.27 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FK Tobol Kostanay47.6%
Draw27.4%
Zhenys25.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556.9%
Under 2.543.1%
Both teams to scoreYes56.7%
No43.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)75.0%
12 (either side)72.6%
X2 (draw or away)52.4%
Handicap -1FK Tobol Kostanay win33.3%
Push (exactly one goal)22.6%
Loss44.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.5%
2-19.9%
2-09.3%

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Zhenys stats

FK Tobol Kostanay and Zhenys recent form

newest first
FK Tobol Kostanay WLWWLW
Zhenys LLWLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FK Tobol Kostanay and Zhenys going into this match

league record before kick-off

FK Tobol Kostanay record

  • They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Zhenys record

  • They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Zhenys head-to-head

Last 7 meetings

1FK Tobol Kostanay wins 4Draws 2Zhenys wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-03ZhenysFK Tobol KostanayKazakhstan Premier League1-0
2025-08-29ZhenysFK Tobol KostanayCup1-1
2025-06-29FK Tobol KostanayZhenysKazakhstan Premier League2-2
2025-06-25FK Tobol KostanayZhenysCup2-1
2025-03-08ZhenysFK Tobol KostanayKazakhstan Premier League0-0
2024-10-04ZhenysFK Tobol KostanayPremier League2-1
2024-04-27FK Tobol KostanayZhenysPremier League1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Zhenys odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 46.5%, draw 28.1%, away 25.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.95 3.20 3.60
1xBet 2.09 3.30 3.53
Bet365 1.95 3.25 3.40
Betano 1.95 3.25 3.65
Betfair 1.91 3.40 3.60
Dafabet 1.93 3.25 3.65
Marathonbet 1.99 3.14 3.36
Superbet 2.02 3.20 3.55
Unibet 1.82 3.15 3.70
William Hill 2.05 3.00 3.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.02 ▲ +0.02
X 3.20 —
2 3.40 ▼ -0.15

12 snapshots recorded, from .