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Kazakhstan Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 28

FK Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana

2 – 1 Full time

28′A. Talal
45′D. Marat
52′K. Bartolec
56′A. KasymA. Merkel
56′D. KaramanB. Islamkhan
56′N. BuricR. Karimov
58′R. Karimov
59′Z. ZhumashevV. Lisakovich
59′D. ZhumatU. Milovanovic
61′V. Lisakovich
66′D. MaratS. Basmanov
72′N. ZhagorovA. Cisse
79′L. Guerra
80′S. Basmanov
84′A. BeysebekovM. Abrayev
90′A. TagybergenN. Cavnic
90′Y. Vorogovskiy

Centralnyj Stadion, KostanayReferee: A. Zatula

FK Tobol Kostanay 31%
Draw 27%
FC Astana 42%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

FK Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FK Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFK Tobol KostanayDrawFC Astana
Model32.1%27.5%40.5%
Market31.0%26.4%42.6%
Final31.3%26.7%42.1%
Edge+0.3%+0.3%-0.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FK Tobol Kosta ↓ / FC Astana → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 8% 7% 1 7% 13% 9% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 53%
No goals 7%

FK Tobol Kostanay and FC Astana expected goals

FK Tobol Kostanay 1.31
FC Astana 1.50

Total expected goals: 2.82

FK Tobol Kostanay and FC Astana attack and defence ratings

FK Tobol Kostanay

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 1.02 +2%

FC Astana

Attack 1.31 +31%
Defence 0.81 -19%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FK Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana: result vs prediction

FK Tobol Kostanay 2 – 1 FC Astana

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 28 fixtures

Kazakhstan Premier League

Before and after this match

FK Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Astana 42.1% 2.38 -0.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 53.4% 1.87 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.0% 1.72 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.3% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 59.4% 1.68 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FK Tobol Kostanay31.3%
Draw26.7%
FC Astana42.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553.4%
Under 2.546.6%
Both teams to scoreYes58.0%
No42.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)57.9%
12 (either side)73.3%
X2 (draw or away)68.7%
Handicap -1FC Astana win20.5%
Push (exactly one goal)20.2%
Loss59.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.0%
1-28.9%
0-17.8%

FK Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana stats

FK Tobol Kostanay and FC Astana recent form

newest first
FK Tobol Kostanay LWWLWW
FC Astana WLWWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FK Tobol Kostanay and FC Astana going into this match

league record before kick-off

FK Tobol Kostanay record

  • They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

FC Astana record

  • They have won 14 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

FK Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5FK Tobol Kostanay wins 1Draws 4FC Astana wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-29FC AstanaFK Tobol KostanayCup1-2
2026-03-20FC AstanaFK Tobol KostanayKazakhstan Premier League2-0
2025-09-19FK Tobol KostanayFC AstanaKazakhstan Premier League2-3
2025-05-10FC AstanaFK Tobol KostanayKazakhstan Premier League1-3
2024-11-03FK Tobol KostanayFC AstanaPremier League1-0
2024-05-08FK Tobol KostanayFC AstanaCup1-0
2024-04-21FC AstanaFK Tobol KostanayPremier League2-2
2023-09-16FC AstanaFK Tobol KostanayPremier League2-1
2023-04-09FK Tobol KostanayFC AstanaPremier League0-1
2022-09-14FC AstanaFK Tobol KostanayPremier League1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FK Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 31.0%, draw 26.4%, away 42.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.00 3.66 2.18
Bet365 2.90 3.40 2.10
Betano 3.00 3.40 2.18
Betfair 2.80 3.50 2.15
Dafabet 2.90 3.40 2.15
Marathonbet 2.86 3.48 2.08
Pinnacle 3.03 3.33 2.11
SBO 2.78 3.22 2.08
William Hill 2.88 3.40 2.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.90 ▲ +0.12
X 3.40 ▼ -0.81
2 2.11 ▲ +0.06

13 snapshots recorded, from .