FK Tobol Kostanay
vs
FC Astana
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Astana
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
FK Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FK Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana
| Probability | FK Tobol Kostanay | Draw | FC Astana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.1% | 27.5% | 40.5% |
| Market | 31.3% | 25.9% | 42.8% |
| Final | 31.5% | 26.3% | 42.2% |
| Edge | +0.8% | +1.5% | -2.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
FK Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana match preview
FK Tobol Kostanay faces FC Astana in the Kazakhstan Premier League on October 10, 2026. The model indicates a probability of 33% for a win for FK Tobol Kostanay, while FC Astana has a higher probability of 43%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of FC Astana, with a 9% likelihood. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals, and both teams are expected to score in 58% of scenarios.
In terms of recent form, FK Tobol Kostanay has recorded two wins in their last six matches, while FC Astana has won four of their last six games. The head-to-head record shows FK Tobol Kostanay with 1 win and FC Astana with 2 wins in their last three encounters. The expected goals suggest FK Tobol Kostanay will score 1.31 goals, while FC Astana is projected to net 1.50 goals.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FK Tobol Kostanay and FC Astana expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.81
FK Tobol Kostanay and FC Astana attack and defence ratings
FK Tobol Kostanay
FC Astana
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
Before and after this match
FK Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Astana | 42.2% | 2.37 | -2.3% | 2.18 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 31.5% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| FC Astana | 42.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.0% |
| No | 42.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Astana win | 20.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 59.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | |
| 0-1 | 7.8% |
FK Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana stats
FK Tobol Kostanay and FC Astana recent form
| FK Tobol Kostanay |
LWWLWW |
| FC Astana |
WLWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FK Tobol Kostanay and FC Astana season so far
FK Tobol Kostanay record
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
FC Astana record
- They have won 14 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
FK Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | FC Astana | FK Tobol Kostanay | Cup | 1-2 |
| 2026-03-20 | FC Astana | FK Tobol Kostanay | Kazakhstan Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-19 | FK Tobol Kostanay | FC Astana | Kazakhstan Premier League | 2-3 |
| 2025-05-10 | FC Astana | FK Tobol Kostanay | Kazakhstan Premier League | 1-3 |
| 2024-11-03 | FK Tobol Kostanay | FC Astana | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2024-05-08 | FK Tobol Kostanay | FC Astana | Cup | 1-0 |
| 2024-04-21 | FC Astana | FK Tobol Kostanay | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2023-09-16 | FC Astana | FK Tobol Kostanay | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2023-04-09 | FK Tobol Kostanay | FC Astana | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2022-09-14 | FC Astana | FK Tobol Kostanay | Premier League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FK Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.3%, draw 25.9%, away 42.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.00 | 3.66 | 2.18 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.18 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.85 | 3.50 | 2.17 |
| Marathonbet | 2.86 | 3.48 | 2.08 |
| Pinnacle | 3.01 | 3.31 | 2.13 |
| William Hill | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .